The
Kangaroos were impressive in their first match against Carlton. Their big win however
may be more about the weakness of the Blues than the strength of one of the
AFLW premiership favourites.
Coming into this AFLW season, new
club North Melbourne/Tasmania/the Kangaroos were considered to be one of the league’s
most formidable teams, on the back of their strong recruiting from other
clubs.
They certainly played that way in their first match against Carlton, beating the Blues by 36 points. Many of their top-line recruits – including Emma Kearney and Jenna Bruton from the Western Bulldogs, and the ex-Collingwood quartet of Emma King, Jasmine Garner, Jess Duffin, and Moana Hope – met expectations in their first outing for their new club. Case closed then, right? After that, can anyone stop the Kangaroos this year?
Early last season a six goal win against the Blues – or any team – would certainly be a signal of a strong AFLW side. Indeed, the 12-goal thrashing of Carlton last season by eventual premiers the Bulldogs was possibly the first major sign they were one of the top flag contenders.
The thing is now though is that almost everyone has easily beaten Carlton recently. Carlton has lost its past six matches by an average of 35 points – about the same as North’s winning margin on the weekend – in a league where the average margin has tended to be about half of that amount. Even after adjusting for opposition strength and home ground advantage (see chart below), Carlton’s average adjusted net margin over that span is -29 points. Compared with a league average score of around 30 points the Blues have had 40 points or more scored against them in all of those matches, and have only once got past 22 points themselves.
They certainly played that way in their first match against Carlton, beating the Blues by 36 points. Many of their top-line recruits – including Emma Kearney and Jenna Bruton from the Western Bulldogs, and the ex-Collingwood quartet of Emma King, Jasmine Garner, Jess Duffin, and Moana Hope – met expectations in their first outing for their new club. Case closed then, right? After that, can anyone stop the Kangaroos this year?
Early last season a six goal win against the Blues – or any team – would certainly be a signal of a strong AFLW side. Indeed, the 12-goal thrashing of Carlton last season by eventual premiers the Bulldogs was possibly the first major sign they were one of the top flag contenders.
The thing is now though is that almost everyone has easily beaten Carlton recently. Carlton has lost its past six matches by an average of 35 points – about the same as North’s winning margin on the weekend – in a league where the average margin has tended to be about half of that amount. Even after adjusting for opposition strength and home ground advantage (see chart below), Carlton’s average adjusted net margin over that span is -29 points. Compared with a league average score of around 30 points the Blues have had 40 points or more scored against them in all of those matches, and have only once got past 22 points themselves.
This is not to take away too
much from the Kangaroos’ win, or to deny that they seem to be one of the teams
with the strongest chance of winning the premiership. It’s just to say that –
unfortunately for the Blues’ players – what the Kangaroos did to Carlton on the
weekend has recently been within the reach of most AFLW teams.
The rankings’ tips for Round 2 are below. The prediction for the Collingwood v Melbourne match should be treated with a great deal of caution. As mentioned before on this blog Collingwood finished last season really well, but they lost several of their important players between seasons, particularly to North Melbourne. Their one-point loss to Geelong on the weekend is not in itself enough to drastically change their ranking, but I would be hugely surprised if they are still so highly rated after the next couple of weeks.
The rankings’ tips for Round 2 are below. The prediction for the Collingwood v Melbourne match should be treated with a great deal of caution. As mentioned before on this blog Collingwood finished last season really well, but they lost several of their important players between seasons, particularly to North Melbourne. Their one-point loss to Geelong on the weekend is not in itself enough to drastically change their ranking, but I would be hugely surprised if they are still so highly rated after the next couple of weeks.
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