AFL Rankings: Round 7 2020

This week: some teams seem to be separating themselves up the top from the pack.

Currently there is a (somewhat) clear top five

At the completion of Round 7, the top five teams are Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond, and Geelong. Those are also the top five teams on the rankings (though not in the order). Isn’t that nice when that happens?

However, the form of those top five teams across the first seven rounds has been more varied than that neat dividing line suggests (see table above). Port Adelaide and Collingwood have been excellent this season, with Port having a percentage of 153.8, and Collingwood a percentage of 144.6. They are ranked #1 (Pies) and #2 (Power) in effective disposals and contested possessions. As noted here a couple of weeks back the Power went on a four-week tear to start the season. Meanwhile the Magpies had a good win against Geelong on the weekend, to go with their comfortable wins against Hawthorn, St. Kilda, and the Western Bulldogs.

The Brisbane Lions have been pretty good this year too, with their wins including a big one against Port Adelaide. However, their losses against Geelong and Hawthorn – with neither result being close (albeit way back in March for the Hawks match) – are a bit of a blemish on their otherwise strong form. The Lions rank second for inside 50s (behind Port), and first for intercept differential.

Richmond had been on negative ranking points for the year until its 54-point win against North Melbourne on the weekend. The Tigers are still ranked so high mainly on the strength of their premiership-winning form in the back half of last season. However, they did show some signs of being ‘the Tigers of old’ with their demolition of the Kangaroos, with a intercept differential of +12, an inside 50 differential of +23, and a tackle differential of +8.

Geelong sit just outside of the top four, and they have also been a bit patchy this season. The Cats’ wins against Brisbane and Hawthorn were pretty impressive, but they have also lost to GWS and Carlton, and snuck home against Melbourne. While they do not quite have the most effective disposals this season, they do have the highest effective disposal differential with their opponents. They are possibly ‘the fifth Beatle’ of this group, but given they were minor premiers last year and were 21 points up at half time in a preliminary final I’ve included them amongst this group of ‘contenders’ – for now.

What about the Eagles?

2018 premier and 2019 finalist the West Coast Eagles sit just behind these teams in eighth on the ladder, after their win against Fremantle in the Western Derby. The Eagles are seventh in the rankings, however they have accumulated no ranking points this year, and did not finish 2019 in the best of form either. They got fairly well beaten for three straight weeks while staying in Queensland, losing to Gold Coast, Brisbane, and Port Adelaide by a combined 122 points (see chart below). The Eagles are middle of the pack for effective disposals, contested possessions, inside 50s, and intercepts. They do however rank second in clearance differential.

West Coast has hit back a bit in the past three weeks with three easy wins, which has included 14 more goals and 57 more inside 50s than their opponents. Those wins have been good even if they have come against three of the bottom four ranked sides, with an average net margin adjusted for opponent strength of +25 points (see chart).

Maybe things will keep building for the Eagles now with an extended home run. Main players such as Josh Kennedy, Elliot Yeo, and Shannon Hurn who had not done too much so far this season have started to find some form, with Kennedy kicking four goals on the weekend. I think we would still want to see a good performance against recent (though famously vanquished) nemesis Collingwood next week however before we put the Eagles in that top group.