AFL Rankings: Round 4 2020

Port Adelaide is now the #1 ranked team.

With four wins to start the 2020 season and a percentage of 236.3, Port Adelaide have moved to the top of the rankings this week, replacing Richmond.

Port’s four wins have been against Gold Coast, Adelaide, Fremantle, and West Coast. Those are currently the three bottom teams on the ladder, and 2019’s last-place side. Are Port’s good performances due largely to the quality of their opposition?

Port Adelaide’s four wins this season have come with a point differential of +199. After my adjustments for home ground advantage and opponent strength that is reduced to +170. That is still the best run of combined adjusted net margins in a stretch of four matches over the past year other than Richmond’s Round 23 and finals series. The rankings system arguably still overrates West Coast based on its form this season, but on that argument it would arguably still underrate Gold Coast.  

That places Port Adelaide as comfortably the best performed team so far this season, based on ranking points (see table above). They are also the best performed team over their past 11 matches, though most of that comes from their recent performances. In contrast, reigning premiers are high up in terms of ranking points over their past 11 matches, but have been below average so far this season.

Port’s biggest danger may be the bookmakers’ current premiership favourite Collingwood. Despite losing to GWS on the weekend, the Magpies are still rated highly from their big wins against the Bulldogs and St. Kilda, along with their performances last season. Port Adelaide and Collingwood lead the league this season in disposals, and are the two teams with a percentage of over 150. It has been a while since the former Magpies and the current Magpies played off in a major final, but perhaps this could be the year for it.