AFL Rankings: Round 12 2020

The Geelong Cats have become the most in-form side in the AFL by playing ‘keepings off’.

The Geelong Cats have become more of a premiership fancy over the past couple of weeks, with ten goal wins against St. Kilda and ladder leader Port Adelaide. The Cats have been a perennial finalist since their last premiership in 2011, but have not made it back to the Grand Final since. This has given them the label of essentially being ‘good, but not good enough’. However their two impressive wins has many reporters and commentators suggesting that things may be different this year. 

It may seem odd to say that Geelong were not a contender last year when they finished as the minor premier. They were at the top of these rankings for much of last year, and going into the finals. They did however notably slow down in the second half of the year, with an average net margin adjusted for opponent strength and home ground advantage of +12 points after their big win against Richmond, compared to +32 points in their first 12 matches.

The Geelong team of recent weeks has risen back to the form they showed during the first half of 2019. Over their past five weeks their average adjusted net margin is +40 points (see chart above), which also includes comfortable wins against Fremantle and North Melbourne, and a narrow loss to fellow premiership contender West Coast. Their run of form has given them the biggest increase in ranking points aside from Melbourne over that period, and now has them sitting on top of the rankings.

But as watchers of the Cats over the past two games would know, there is something different about their style of football this year. They seem to have taken a leaf out of the playbook of their 21^st century nemesis Hawthorn, and are favouring more short, precise kicks to hold on to the ball and move it forward.

The Cats play the uncontested game

Geelong leads the AFL this year for disposal, mark and uncontested possession differentials with their opponents, which is indicative of their increased tendency to chip the ball around (see table below). Their advantages were even greater in these areas in their two big wins against the Saints and Power. Last year, the Cats were outside the top four in all of these categories. Over the past couple of years it has been Collingwood, and last year GWS, that have used the high-possession game to most success, but Geelong is proving adept at it this season.

Several Cats have seen their disposal counts rise this year, generally the smaller players around the flanks (see table below). Two midfielders though have really seen their production grow, and have arguably been key to the Cats’ style of play in recent weeks. One is wingman Sam Menegola, while the other is Cameron Guthrie. Their disposal counts have increased significantly even without adjusting for the shorter game time this year; after adjustment their increases are even more impressive.

This is not to say that the Cats have not been good at the contested footy as well. While not as large as their uncontested possession advantage, the Cats also rank first for contested possession differential this year. Big forward Tom Hawkins dragged down an astonishing seven contested marks against Port Adelaide, although the Cats don’t rank quite as highly over the season in this category.

Will things be different this year come finals time for the Cats? It is the question that has been asked for seemingly much of the last decade. But most of their players appear to be in peak form at the moment, and as long as they can keep purring along like this, they’ll give themselves the best possible chance to finally break through to the top again.