AFL Power Rankings: Round 23 2019

There is no clear premiership favourite heading into the finals this year, but that will not stop the rankings making a pick anyway.

After the home and away season Geelong finish on top of the rankings, and the ladder, having spent the better part of the season on top of both. Below that though, things are quite close and muddled, as various teams have heated up and cooled off compared with their overall season form.

The Western Bulldogs are ranked second, but finished seventh on the ladder. Hawthorn and North Melbourne are ranked in the top eight, but did not make the finals. GWS and Essendon are ranked outside the top eight, but did make the finals. Last year’s Grand Final contestants Collingwood and West Coast are ranked outside the top six.

Good luck picking a premiership favourite heading into the finals this year. But we’re going to try and pick a flag winner anyway…

Predicting the finals series

Over the past four years I’ve used the rankings to predict how the finals series will play out. Basically this is done just by comparing who has the higher ranking points, adjusted for any estimated home ground advantage. This method has picked two of the four premiership winners (Hawthorn 2015 and Richmond 2017), and six of the eight Grand Finalists (missing out on the Bulldogs in 2016 and Collingwood in 2018).

This year, the rankings predict that the top two teams on the ladder – Geelong and Brisbane – will meet in the Grand Final, with Geelong prevailing (see table above). Indeed, the rankings are picking the higher-placed team on the ladder in every case, apart from the highly-ranked Bulldogs cutting a path through to a Preliminary Final.

Home ground advantage aside though, there is not a lot separating the four highest-ranked teams. Richmond is the current premiership favourite with the bookmakers, and the Tigers’ probability of winning could be better than indicated above. The rankings may still be underrating them a little due to their injuries earlier in the year, and an extra goal of ranking points would have them as favoured in any match-up outside of Brisbane at the Gabba (and the bookmakers favour them in that as well). That still would not make Richmond a strong premiership favourite however.

Outside of West Coast against Essendon, it would not be surprising to see the above scenario go completely out the window within the first week. Late season form ‘slump’ aside though, Geelong has still performed well enough throughout the year for the rankings to favour them as the premier team of 2019.