It looks a very close race in this year’s finals series, but I’ve a few bucks on the Brisbane Lions to win the 2021 flag.
It was an exciting finish to the 2021 home-and-away season, with positions changing significantly by the week – and by the minute on the weekend in the final round.
The Brisbane Lions, who were outside the top four over the past month, snuck into fourth in the final minute of their match against the Eagles, giving them a double chance in the finals.
The Western Bulldogs, who were on top of the ladder after Round 20, lost their last three matches to finish fifth, meaning they are now in an elimination final and must win all of their finals.
Port Adelaide finished in second with their two-point win against the Dogs, which is their highest position since Round 2, and earned themselves a home final.
And Melbourne won their first minor premiership in 57 years, which usually means they should not get a home ground disadvantage unless they lose in the first week, but who knows this year?
Premiership favouritism has changed often in recent weeks, and the finals series looks like it will be no different. In the current TAB betting, the top four teams are all at odds of less than $6.00, and Stats Insider has all of the top four teams at a probability of between 20 and 25 per cent. Adding more complexity is that – with state restrictions due to COVID – we don’t even know where teams will play each week if they do win; for example, whether Port Adelaide gets a home preliminary final if they win this week, or which state the Victorian sides would host finals in, or even where the freaking Grand Final is going to be played!
Nevertheless I make picks for the finals every year, and this year will be no exception. Here are my predictions for every match of the 2021 AFL finals series:
So I’m picking the Brisbane Lions, who currently top my rankings, for the premiership, and reflecting my confidence I’ve put a whole three bucks on it. I’ll enjoy my sixteen dollars return – which I will have already spent on another six-pack to get me through lockdown – in the ‘quarter of a chance’ event it comes off.
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