AFL Rankings: Finals 2021

Melbourne have barraged their way through the AFL finals series to claim a long-awaited premiership.

After a long wait of 57 years, Melbourne have finally won their thirteenth premiership in the VFL/AFL. They did it by beating the Western Bulldogs in the Grand Final, by 74 points, in Perth… which seems a somewhat appropriate result in a season where things shifted so quickly and frequently that my tips were often out of date about as soon as I posted them. This followed big wins by the Demons over Geelong by 83 points and Brisbane by about five goals, to complete the most devastating run by a team through the finals series since at least Richmond had their own drought-breaking premiership in 2017. As a result, while they started the finals series among a group of four to six teams that all looked fairly even up the top, they have ended the season on my rankings with a clear break of about three goals over the second-ranked side.

Playing their best against the best

In a way, Melbourne’s domination of the finals is consistent with their form throughout the season, where they were fantastic against other teams in the top eight. The Demons ended up winning 11 matches and losing only two against other finals sides, better than their record of nine wins out of 12 matches – which included one draw – against non-finals teams. Overall their average net margin was about as good against the top sides as against the bottom sides (see tables below). It was a big change from their 2018 finals run, where they demolished lower-ranked sides and struggled against the best. After adjusting for opponent strength though, their performances in those heavyweight matches become even more impressive – and are a large part of why they ultimately ended up ranked as clearly the best team in 2021.

DEE-fence! DEE-fence!

Melbourne ended the 2021 season as not only the premiers and the top team on my rankings, but also as the most improved team on my rankings. In particular, they improved massively in defence. The Demons were stingier than any other team, letting through just 64 points per game and 1.31 points per opposition 50, compared with league averages of 80 points and 1.55 points per opposition 50. In 2020, they were mid-range on these measures, and conceding points when the ball went inside their opposition’s forward 50 was an area of weakness during their 2018 finals run.

This improvement can be seen in the production of their three main backs: Jake Lever – who may have been this season’s best defender – Steven May, and Christian Salem. They didn’t get any more spoils, but they won more contests. All three recorded substantial increases from 2020 in their averages for kicks, marks, contested possessions, intercepts (with Lever leading the league), and rebound 50s, while Lever and May also won more contested marks (see table below).

The Demons overall had by far the highest contested possession and intercept differentials this season. If you’re constantly winning far more ball than your opponents it’s a good bet that you are going to be very hard to stop.

Gawn, Trac, and Clarry get their cup

In the end though, there is little doubt that the driving force behind Melbourne’s success is their star-studded midfield of ruckman and captain Max Gawn, and high draft picks Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca. Gawn was second for average hit outs per game this season, while Oliver and Petracca were top ten for disposals and top five for contested possessions per game (with Oliver leading the league in the latter).

Petracca’s Grand Final in particular is already the stuff of legend, making him the unanimous choice for the Norm Smith Medal. Trac picked up 39 disposals – with 24 contested possessions – and had 11 inside 50s, nine clearances, an astonishing 15 score involvements, and two goals. All of this too came against a Bulldogs midfield which is one of best in the land. It was a performance right up there with any produced by Dustin Martin, the player who Petracca – somewhat reluctantly – is often compared with.

Is this the start of a new Dee-nasty then? Melbourne this season were one of the best teams, if not the best team, across two-thirds of the ground, and none of their main rivals got close to them in the finals. Still, as Richmond and Geelong found this season the higher up you are the further you have to fall. For now, winning a first flag is almost six decades should provide plenty of satisfaction (and relief) in itself.