Blessed with a talented midfield over the past few seasons, Melbourne may finally have the defence to match it.
Melbourne has won its first four matches of this AFL season, among those comfortable victories against two of last year’s finalists Geelong and St. Kilda. It has been an impressive start for the Demons, and one that was somewhat unexpected after a horrible 2019 season and an inconsistent 2020 season. Indeed, so far this season Melbourne looks to be back in the form it displayed during the 2018 season, that saw it win two finals before losing in a preliminary final to premiers West Coast.
Throughout their ups and downs over the past few years one fairly consistent area of strength for the Demons has been their excellent midfield group. Ruckman and current captain Max Gawn has been not only one of the most dominant rucks in the league but also one of the most dominant of all AFL players. Meanwhile main midfielders Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, and Jack Viney (with support from Angus Brayshaw) are contested possession ‘beasts’ that have ensured the Demons do not often get beaten in the middle. Over the past five years Melbourne has had a positive inside 50 differential in each year – even in its disastrous 2019 season – highlighted by its monster 26 per cent differential in its 2018 finals season (see table below).
What has caused some Melbourne fans consternation however, and noted by some of the Demons’ detractors, is that they have often still lost games in which they have won the inside 50 battle. Melbourne has sometimes been relatively poor at scoring when it gets the ball in its attacking zone, and/or relatively poor at stopping the opposition from scoring when it gets into their attack. So far this season however, while the ‘offence’ is still not quite there, Melbourne has dramatically improved its defence (see table above), allowing the second fewest points and fewest points per opposition inside 50 in the league.
A main part of Melbourne’s improved ability to stop its opposition from scoring has been its ability to intercept the ball. Melbourne has also dramatically improved its intercept differential (see table below), with a differential that is reminiscent of the recent Richmond team at its peak. Brought over from Adelaide a few years back defender Jake Lever has finally delivered on his promise (and contract) in spades, averaging over 10 intercepts and two contested marks per game. This has been supported by the reliable intercept marking of another recent Demon recruit Steven May (now unfortunately injured), and Gawn continuing to provide a towering presence dropping back in defence.
Melbourne’s increased ability to win the ball through intercepts may prove important to it finishing in the upper part of the ladder. With their strong midfield the Demons have been pretty good at winning the clearances over the past few years (see table above). However, winning the intercept battle is usually the more important one – again demonstrated by the recent Richmond premiership sides that have often lost the clearances – as the majority of ‘possession chains’ are started through intercepts.
Can the Demons keep their wall up? If so, they will have another major weapon in their quest to finally break through for their first premiership in 57 years.
No comments:
Post a Comment