Geelong are second on the ladder, and Richmond are ninth. Geelong has a higher points differential, scoring shot differential, inside 50 differential, and ‘possession chain’ differential than Richmond this season (see table below). Why are Richmond ranked higher?
According to the rankings Richmond have had a slightly tougher fixture so far in 2022. Richmond’s average net margin in 2022 adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength is 1.9 points higher than their average ‘raw’ net margin (see table below). In contrast, Geelong’s average adjusted net margin is 4.4 points lower than their average ‘raw’ net margin.
This ‘tougher’ fixture for Richmond mainly comes down to small differences – the Tigers have played Melbourne whereas Geelong hasn’t, and they haven’t played North Melbourne. If these matches were taken out Richmond’s average ‘raw’ net margin would actually be slightly higher than Geelong’s so far this season (see table above).
On the other hand, Richmond’s average net margin is driven a lot by their 109 point win against West Coast. If their games against the Eagles were excluded, Geelong average ‘raw’ net margin would actually be about two goals higher than Richmond’s.
In summary, they are probably similar, although Geelong does seem to have the more ‘sustainable’ profile of getting the ball and getting it into their forward line. We have seen this before though, with the Tigers stepping their performance up a notch in the finals. Geelong should have a better chance this year purely because they are currently seven spots higher on the ladder – but they would probably also want to keep things that way…
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