Going into the 2023 AFL Finals
Series, there are three teams that collectively it looks likely the premiership
winner will come from.
Geelong is the favourite,
finishing on top of the ladder with 18 wins out of 22 matches, including their
past 13. Reigning premiers Melbourne are the second favourite, with some
up-and-down form over the second half of the season, but finished up by a
dominating with in Brisbane. Sydney is the outsider of the three, particularly
as they will have to play at least two matches in Victoria to win, however they
have stepped up above the pack to move closer to the top two teams over recent
weeks. All three teams are up or near the top in winning the ball and gaining
territory (see table below).
As for the other finalists –
I’m picking that Fremantle’s and Brisbane’s home ground advantage gets them
over the line in the first week, but they go out the next week when on the
road. That makes Collingwood my other predicted preliminary finalist… but
surely their luck/ability to win close matches they are well behind in comes to
an end at some point. Melbourne would probably be a bit nervous about the Pies
given their two losses to them this season, but I think it’s unlikely
Collingwood gets past Geelong or Sydney.
Prediction from me then: Geelong v Melbourne in the Grand Final, with the Cats winning their first premiership since 2011. Though it feels like this is far from the first time recently I’ve predicted a Geelong flag after an impressive home-and-away season…
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