AFL Rankings: Round 1 2023

Did Collingwood just prove the analysts wrong?

One of the main stories of the 2022 season was Collingwood’s extraordinarily successful record in close games. They won eleven matches by less than 12 points, and only lost three by that margin – and all of those were against the other three preliminary finalists.

Many football fans and commentators praised Collingwood’s ability to keep winning close games. Many analysts did not deny it was a great effort, but argued that it probably had more to do with a stretch of good luck than ability, as teams are not generally able to do better than win 50 per cent of close games over the long haul. The Magpies were therefore tipped by some of the more analytical pundits to likely drop in 2023 – assuming they generally played to a similar level than 2022 – because it is unlikely their fantastic record in close games could be replicated.

And then Collingwood has come out in the first round and beaten the reigning premiers Geelong by 22 points, with seven more scoring shots and 16 more inside 50s. Did the analysts underrate Collingwood? Possibly, but that doesn’t necessarily prove Collingwood weren’t unusually ‘lucky’ last year. Maybe the Magpies are better this year? Maybe the Cats are worse? Maybe Collingwood just had a better than usual night? We probably won’t have a clearer picture until a few weeks into the new season.

One pleasing aspect for Collingwood though is that they actually got more of the ball on the weekend than their opponents, both for contested possessions (+5) and by a considerable margin uncontested possessions (+63). They trailed their opponents on average in these areas last year, and were well beaten against Geelong on contested possessions (-21) in their final last year. Again it is too soon into the new season to tell whether the Magpies will sustain that, but it is a possible early indicator that they may be a little better this year.

Did Port Adelaide just prove the analysts right?

At the other end of the ‘luck’ spectrum for analysts in 2022 was Port Adelaide, who won only two out of nine games decided by less than 12 points, and missed the finals. They are therefore a common tip among the statistically-minded to improve in 2023.

Those who liked Port’s prospects to improve their win tally in 2023 could hardly have felt more validated – as much as it is possible to be validated by one result – when the Power smashed through preliminary finalists the Brisbane Lions on the weekend. Port were rampant in the second half of that match, and finished with the highest differentials in scoring shots (+19), inside 50s (+25), and uncontested possessions (+127) for the round – along with the second highest contested possession differential (+34). It was a dominant performance.

Again, we want to pump the brakes a little on drawing too much from one game, but this performance does lend further support to the expectation that Port Adelaide were a bit better than their win-loss record indicated last year. The rankings currently have them fourth, and just a touch behind second, so I’m certainly high on their prospects. Also on this basis, I am predicting a close game for them against the Magpies at the MCG on the weekend. However, if Port Adelaide got up in a close game that the majority of football ‘boffins’ expect them to narrowly lose, would we say that supported their views on the Power and Magpies or went against them…?