AFL Rankings: Round 16 2023

Melbourne ‘blow it’ but still look formidable

Melbourne had a costly loss on the weekend in terms of their hopes of finishing in the top four, losing to GWS by two points. This put them two wins behind Brisbane in third place, and four wins behind Collingwood and Port Adelaide.

It was a game that Melbourne ‘shouldn’t have lost’. They had eight more scoring shots than the Giants, but were inaccurate in front of goal, scoring 5.15. They had 73 entries inside 50 to the Giants’ 46. And they had 44 more contested possessions than GWS, including 48 clearances to 28. That sort of dominance in both winning the ball and gaining territory would usually get you the win.

It somewhat captures what have been the strengths and weaknesses for Melbourne this season. They lead the league for inside 50s and contested possessions. However, they are thirteenth for scoring shots per inside 50, while Port Adelaide and Brisbane are in the top five. It’s a familiar result for Melbourne over the past few years, where their midfield and defence have been stellar, but they have struggled relative to other teams to convert their forward entries into scores.

Melbourne also lost a close game to Fremantle by seven points at the MCG a few weeks back, despite an inside 50 differential of +6 and a contested possession differential of +16. Aside from that their losses have been mostly ‘expected’, losing to Port Adelaide, Brisbane, and Geelong away, with the exception being their 27-point loss to Essendon in Adelaide.

Collingwood also lost when they played Brisbane away and they narrowly beat Adelaide (away and at home), while Port Adelaide got thumped by Collingwood on the road and have famously snuck home in a few matches during their current twelve-match winning streak. Which is not to say they aren’t very good teams as well, just that the difference between them and Melbourne may not be nearly as large as the current ladder suggests.

Those losses for Melbourne did ultimately occur however, and they’ve found themselves with some work to do to finish in the top four. Most ladder projections still have them making it, with their two hardest match-ups against Brisbane and Adelaide coming at home. If they get there they would still fancy their chances in a first-up final, particularly if it was at the MCG against Collingwood, but they could improve their chances even more by getting their forward set-up working better.