AFL Rankings: Round 17 2023

A few weeks ago, Carlton were ‘slumping’ so badly that football fans and media were speculating about coach Michael Voss’ future with the club. Despite losing six games straight though, the Blues’ form was not quite as bad as it seemed. The six losses came at an average of 25 points, but included losses to top sides Brisbane, Collingwood, and Melbourne. Inaccuracy in front of goal also hurt the Blues, as they had only 16 less scoring shots than their opponents over those weeks.

Things have turned around significantly for Carlton over the past month. The Blues have won each of their past three matches by over 50 points, albeit against much easier competition than they faced during their losing streak. The rankings now have them as the eighth-ranked side (although aside from the top five and the bottom three, the other teams are so close that a couple of good wins can quickly move a side around the rankings).

Carlton has by far the highest disposal differential this season (+27), which was somewhat a source of criticism when they were hanging on to the ball and still losing. But they also rate second for contested possession differential (+8), as they did last season, indicating they can win the ‘tough ball’ as well. That includes the league’s best contested mark differential (+2.8), with big forwards Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay ranked equal first.

Other main indicators also suggest Carlton are around the mark for a finals side, ranking second in differential for intercepts, sixth for clearances, and ninth for inside 50s. The main concern for them is whether they have left their finals run too late. They currently sit one win and percentage away from eighth position with seven rounds left, and have a few tough matches to come, including Port Adelaide this week who are riding a thirteen-game winning streak. Nevertheless, the rankings have liked what they’ve seen from Carlton over the past few weeks enough that, with the home ground advantage, they are tipped to win by one point over the Power. If that happens, that would certainly give the Blues’ season – and morale – a bit of a boost.