AFL Rankings: Round 22 2024

A few weeks ago, I tried to make some sort of sense of the large set of teams occupying the middle part of the AFL ladder, and where they ‘really’ stood in relation to each other. Things have shifted a bit since then, particularly in cases where the final result was unexpected – where do they stand now?

One of the most significant changes has been the drop-off in Carlton’s performances, and their chances of finishing in the top four, or even playing finals at all (see table above). A few weeks ago I said they would start favourites in all of their remaining matches, but they have ended up losing three out of the next four. They still have a couple of relatively friendly match-ups to finish off the year, but so do their nearest rivals for finals spots in Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs, and winning both games may not be enough.

In the other direction, Port Adelaide has performed better than expected, beating Carlton and demolishing ladder leaders Sydney by an astonishing 112 points. They have a couple of tricky matches remaining with the Showdown against Adelaide and an away match against Fremantle, but at worst they are almost certain to finish in the top eight now, and they are a very good chance to finish in the top four.

Four results were key on the weekend in terms of involving multiple finals contenders – Sydney beating Collingwood, Geelong beating Fremantle, GWS beating Brisbane, and Hawthorn beating Carlton. This has left Sydney, Port, Geelong, GWS, and Brisbane as the teams most strongly contending for the top four, and Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton as the teams most strongly contending for the remaining spots in the top eight.

The Brisbane-GWS result in particular had a major impact. The Lions are still considered by the rankings points to be the best team, and they looked like it in the first quarter in the Giants with over 20 more contested possessions, and ten more scoring shots. But their problem from the early season of inaccuracy in front of goal, couple with their bad luck in their opponents being accurate, came back to plague them – the Lions had ten more scoring shots and yet lost by 18 points. This puts them now half a win behind the top four, and relying on at least one other team to lose to finish there while not ‘slipping up’ again themselves. GWS meanwhile are now a very good chance to finish in the top four themselves, even with a couple of tricky match-ups to finish off.

It's not overstating things this year to say that the next two weeks’ worth of results will be crucial, particularly with in-form teams Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs lurking in the lower half of the eight. Teams may feel more confident than usual that they can win the premiership from fifth or lower, but home ground advantage and a double chance are still going to significantly improve your prospects of a successful finals run.