AFL Rankings: Round 23 2024

Did Essendon actually get found out?

Essendon will now miss the finals in 2024, after sitting in second halfway through the season, and after still being in the top four just six weeks ago. The two most common narratives to explain this fall are: a) Essendon played easy teams earlier in the season and got ‘found out’ as they played harder teams, and b) Essendon drop away as the season goes on. There is a bit of truth to both of these things, but even relatively simple analysis shows there is more to it than that.

On the first point, Essendon’s fixture did get tougher towards the back end of the season. They had a nice little stretch in the middle of the season when they played bottom teams Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast twice (see chart below). After that, their fixture did become tougher, although not hugely so. Their early season run looks tough in hindsight, but they did play Hawthorn and the Bulldogs before both of those teams hit their current hot form.

On the second point, Essendon certainly fell away badly towards the end of last season, with some big losses. My rankings had them lowly rated as a result, and it would be tempting to see their recent results as a reversion to this level.

The Bombers though are possibly a bit better than their results suggest. They are one of the leading teams for inside 50 differential this season, which indicates that they are at least putting themselves in a good position to outscore their opponents. They have however struggled to convert their forward opportunities relative to other teams, with about the same number of scoring shots from over five more inside 50s per game (see table below). That they have maintained their inside 50 differential as their fixture has become harder suggests they may have even improved in this area as the season has progressed.

What has turned against the Bombers though is their opponents’ accuracy in front of goal. Since the halfway mark of the season, Essendon’s opponents have averaged around the same number of scoring shots, but two more goals, converting shots to goals at a rate well above the league average. It could be argued then this has been a bit ‘unlucky’ for the Bombers.

Essendon were probably never a ‘top four’ team this season, at least not unless they converted their forward opportunities better. But there may be more cause for optimism about how they finished this season compared with last season, even if the resultant fall in ladder position seems more dramatic.