Despite their high finishes in each of the past two AFL seasons, the Brisbane Lions may not be among the leading premiership contenders.
The Brisbane Lions have been among the more popular picks to win the AFL premiership in 2021, or at least to finish in the top four. This is largely based on the Lions having finished second at the end of each of the past two previous home-and-away seasons and having made the preliminary final last season. These high finishes came after several years near the bottom of the ladder, contributing to the impression of a team on the rise and poised to take the next step.
That expectation hit a stumbling block on the weekend when Brisbane lost to the Sydney Swans – a team many would have considered not to even be a finals contender – at home by over 30 points. Their upcoming match is a trip to Geelong, one of last year’s Grand Finalists, seemingly placing the Lions in significant danger of being 0-2.
Over the pre-season, the AFL ‘analytical community’ has been less bullish on Brisbane’s flag chances compared with the media and the general public. The Lions’ points for and against last season were more commensurate with a team with 12 wins (out of 17 matches) than the 14 wins Brisbane finished with [Fox Sports]. They were ‘fortunate’ in close matches; going 3-0 in matches decided by one goal or less, and 5-0 in matches decided by two goals or less. With a few scoring shots in the other direction, their record could have looked somewhat different.
A second reason Brisbane may have been ‘fortunate’ is that they have had most of their first-choice team available over the past two seasons. For the past three seasons, the Lions have had 18 players in at least 80 per cent of their matches [ABC News], which is something no other team has had since 2012. If this comes down a bit this year, the Lions may find it harder to replicate last season’s form.
The third reason is that, due to the ‘hub’ situation in 2020, Brisbane had a relatively huge net home ground advantage last year. Exactly how big that advantage was depends how you classify their ‘away’ games against non-Queensland clubs ‘hubbing’ in Queensland, but the Lions only had two matches in their opponents’ home states. That is (hopefully, given a pandemic caused it) not happening again any time soon, which may also make it harder for Brisbane to match last season’s performance.
Brisbane had a percentage of 124.9 last season, the lowest of the top four, although still comfortably above the next four teams, with percentages of 107 to 117. However after adjusting for estimated net home ground advantage – which includes that the Victorian clubs are estimated to have had a significant net disadvantage last season – their percentage is closer to that of the sides which finished fifth to ninth. This is the range they are in on the current rankings.
Of course the Lions could improve even more this season, counterbalancing some of the above effects. Further, one loss does not a season make and the Lions could very well rebound even this week – but the main point here is that it perhaps should not be as huge a surprise as many think if Brisbane does end up sliding back a bit this season.
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