AFL Rankings: Round 6 2021

One of last year’s finalists St. Kilda has fallen off a cliff over the past few weeks.

The AFL team that has lost the most rankings points so far this season is St. Kilda. The Saints had some moderate success last year, making the finals for the first time in nine years, and winning a final. This year they have won two out of six matches, and three of their losses have been by a combined 215 points. They have been one of the weakest teams so far in 2021 (see chart below), after being one of the better teams last season.

Only North Melbourne has scored less points and given up more points than St. Kilda this season. The Saints’ inside 50 differential is not too bad for a low team, sitting at an average of minus 4.7 per game, but they are struggling at either end of the ground. Part of this is a change in accuracy in front of goal. Last year they had a goal to behind ratio of 56 per cent, which has fallen to 52 per cent this season, while their opponents’ ratio has jumped from 49 to 57 per cent. Still they are getting far less scoring shots than their opponents as well.

Use of the ball has been a problem, with the Saints ranking second in clangers despite being fourth-last in disposals (although Brisbane’s clangers per disposal is even worse, and they are still going OK). Of the players with 50 or more disposals this year, these Saints are in the top 25 for their clangers to contested possession ratios: Bradley Hill (much-maligned this year for some of his disposals), Jimmy Webster, Jade Gresham, Dan Butler, and Ben Long.

Their contested possession success has also dropped, with the third-lowest contested possession differential and the second-lowest (again, only ahead of the Kangaroos) if one takes out clearances. This has not been helped by Jade Gresham (out now for the season), Zak Jones, and Rowan Marshall playing a combined nine matches, but even many of their remaining players are winning less of the contested ball.

Can it be turned around? They do have most of the same list as last year, but at the moment too many of their players are producing at a lower standard compared with 2020's finals run. Still, even if finals are already out of reach, you would think they will finish better than ‘the lowest aside from North Melbourne’ this year.