AFL Rankings: Round 1 2022

Welcome back to the AFL Rankings for 2022.

With the first round of a new AFL season, we get a bunch of new information about how teams will perform – and also some overreactions.

This week’s we’re going to look through the first weekend of games and take what was the ‘gut feel’ from the result, and then consider how well that stands up in light of further analysis.

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

Gut feel: Melbourne are a clear step ahead of everyone else.

Further analysis: Yes, if they keep up the form they showed last September.

Melbourne are three goals ahead on top of the rankings, but that gap is largely due to the fantastic form they showed in the 2021 finals series on route to the flag. Those three finals wins account for about half of their current rankings points – without them they are ranked close to teams like the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane. Finals form is still the best form, so you would still favour Melbourne at the moment. However as Richmond found after steamrolling their way to their breakthrough 2017 premiership, there is still plenty of time in the season for others to close the gap.

Carlton v Richmond

Gut feel: Carlton are a finals contender, and Richmond are on the way down.

Further analysis: Carlton’s form is still only based on a couple of games, but Richmond’s is based on half a season.

Carlton looked impressive in their win against Richmond, in particular their midfield dominated with 18 more clearances and 24 more inside 50s. The notion that the Blues’ resurgence is real though is largely built on their equally impressive showing against Melbourne in their pre-season match. Their form to finish off 2021 was fairly dismal, with losses to Gold Coast and North Melbourne, and a 95-point thumping from Port Adelaide. The main reasons for optimism is that they may have finally got a strong, settled midfield and all of their big recruits fit and firing. Their match against the Bulldogs this week will be a big test of their new found capability.

Richmond’s drop in form is based on a larger body of evidence. They won only two out of their final ten matches in 2021, and would be near the bottom on ranking points since the halfway mark of last season. They have been trailing badly in clearance and contested possession differentials, and unlike their golden run can no longer can get the intercepts to make up for it. They also arguably no longer have any elite players outside of Dustin Martin, with their older players (e.g. Trent Cotchin) past their best and their younger players (e.g. Jack Graham) perhaps not quite into their prime.

Brisbane v Port Adelaide

Gut feel: Brisbane are a bit better if playing at home, likewise Port Adelaide.

Further analysis: Pretty much this.

There isn’t much between these sides on the rankings, and thee wasn’t a lot between these teams on the weekend, with the Lions getting six more scoring shots but Port recording three more inside 50s. Clearances and intercepts were also almost equal. Brisbane were slightly more effective when they had the ball – which might or might not be one of the great mysteries of ‘home ground advantage’ – but you could easily see this result going the other way if played at Adelaide Oval (or perhaps with less Port injuries).

West Coast v Gold Coast

Gut feel: Both sides put up a good contest – even with West Coast’s long list of injuries – and will be competitive.

Further analysis: They may well have mainly looked competitive because they played each other.

West Coast and Gold Coast are the bottom two teams on the rankings, with both recording large losses in the latter stages of 2021. Even before their big set of injuries to start this season the Eagles were dropping down, losing by over 40 points to Collingwood, at home to North Melbourne, and getting thrashed by Sydney and the Bulldogs. They might well have won the game on the weekend against the Suns with a full team, but their form was of a lower-ranked team even before that.

The Suns continued their recent trend of starting the season well, and sit in fourth on the ladder. A good sign was their +34 contested possession differential, with Matt Rowell and Touk Miller getting 40 contested possessions between them. But they were playing a weakened opponent, and there is still a larger amount of evidence that they are a lower-ranked side as well. If they are competitive against Melbourne this week, perhaps we can start to reconsider.