AFL Rankings: Round 21 2022

 

During the first half of this season the Fremantle Dockers were widely considered to be one of the big improvers, and perhaps a contender for the premiership, particularly after they beat both Geelong and Melbourne in Victoria. They won 10 of their first 13 matches, and then have dropped off a bit by winning only three of their seven matches (with one draw) since. Where do they sit now?

The rankings currently have them as sixth, which is probably around where most people see them. The rankings pretty much agree with the ‘win-loss’ column here; the Dockers were considered to be significantly better over their first 13 matches with an average adjusted net margin of 16 points, compared to their past seven matches with an average adjusted net margin of -2 points. Their ranking has still improved in recent weeks however as last year’s performances have gradually been removed.

Earlier in the season, the Dockers basically improved all over the ground, though particularly in defence. Their points per inside 50 and inside 50 differential improved significantly from 2021, and their opposition points per inside 50 decreased to be one of the best in the league (see below).

Part of this could be attributed to their greater reliance on ‘chipping’ the ball around to get it out of defence and advance it forward. The Dockers lead the league in uncontested possessions. Seven Dockers – ‘inside’ midfielders Andrew Brayshaw, Will Brodie, and Caleb Serong, ‘outside’ midfielders Blake Acres and James Aish, and defenders Jordan Clark and Hayden Young – are in the top 60 for average uncontested possessions per match this season. Indeed one could say the distinction between ‘inside’ and ‘outside’ midfielders is not that clear with Brayshaw getting plenty of possession on the ‘wings’ this season.

This weight of uncontested possession has kept up over the past seven matches (see table above), as has the efficiency within the 50 metre arcs. What has fallen in actually the Dockers’ ability to get the ball inside 50 relative to the opposition, with Carlton, Sydney, and Melbourne all winning the inside 50 count by big margins when they played them. To some degree this may be teams working out how to counter the Dockers’ uncontested game style once they get into the middle of the ground. While Carlton smashed Freo in the clearances, Sydney and Melbourne were around level with the Dockers in that area, suggesting it was in the ‘uncontested’ part of the game where they were able to counter.

This gives an overall sense of a team that was able to get the ‘jump’ on others earlier in the season, but which the top teams have now been able to ‘work out’. Still Fremantle remain near the top of the ladder. For a team that has missed the finals for several years this season is still a major improvement, and they are now set to get some valuable finals experience in a month’s time.