AFL Rankings: Round 10 2023

The Lions are ‘actually’ in the top four

Last season, the Brisbane Lions won two finals – including an away win against Melbourne – and made the ‘final four’. However, that impressive win against Melbourne masked to some extent that the Lions were possibly not among the best four teams last season. Brisbane finished the home-and-away in sixth, with the fifth best percentage. Their net margin over their last nine home-and-away matches was only +1 (+6 adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength). They were possibly a score review away from being eliminated in the first week of the finals.

Coming into this season, optimism was high about the Lions being among the top premiership contenders. Their midfield was boosted by the additions of former Bulldog Josh Dunkley and ‘father-son’ phenomenon Will Ashcroft. They had been finalists for the past four seasons, and perhaps their time had finally come.

That optimism was dented by a big loss to Port Adelaide in the first round, where they had 19 less scoring shots, 25 less inside 50s, and 161 less possessions than the Power. However, since then things have been pretty good for the Lions, particularly in the past seven weeks. Their seven wins in a row have been by an average of 41 points, and while Collingwood is looking like the only finalist of the teams they beat, it’s still a dominant winning streak. They currently sit second on the AFL ladder after ten rounds.

Brisbane have been a high scoring team, both this season and last, averaging close to 100 points per game. Their defence this year however has allowed one less goal per game, and their average inside 50 differential per game has improved from 3.9 to 7.8. Their average clearance differential has improved from 0.7 to 5.7, with Lachie Neale ranking second for average clearances per game, and Dunkley and ruck Oscar McInerney in the top 25.

For all of that, the Lions are probably not that different in set-up and even in personnel from the past few years; they are just executing it better. Take the case of big forward Joe Daniher. Daniher is averaging three goals per game and four inside 50s (ranked third among key forwards), even while he has spent more time in the ruck. His kicking efficiency is at a career-high 64.5 per cent (career average 56.9 per cent). Can Daniher be expected to maintain this level? Maybe, maybe not – but it would certainly help the Lions continue to be among the best teams in the competition if, in his eleventh season, he could (his All-Australian season aside) finally ‘put it all together’.