AFL Rankings: Round 1 2025

Three teams that various pundits can make finals this year, or even challenge for the flag, had poor performances on the weekend – Carlton, Fremantle, and Port Adelaide.

Carlton lost to ‘wooden spoon’ favourites Richmond, after being 41 points ahead. Fremantle got well beaten at ‘the Cattery’, losing by 13 goals to Geelong. In Ken Hinkley’s last season as coach, Port Adelaide recorded their worst loss of his tenure, falling by 91 points to Collingwood.

One of those losses isn’t quite as bad as it appears, if you can get past the odds before the game. Carlton were arguably still the ‘better team’ on the night against Richmond (though the young Tigers, with their efforts to get back and ahead, were surely deserved winners), with eight more scoring shots, 21 more contested possessions, and 25 more inside 50s. Even letting the Tigers get so close though was not a great sign.

Even aside from the scoring margins Fremantle and Port Adelaide were more soundly beaten, although against stronger opposition. Fremantle had 12 less inside 50s and 14 less contested possessions than the Cats, while Port had 17 less inside 50s and only two contested marks against the Pies.  

These were disappointing results, although it is just ‘one game’. The larger point here however is – why were these teams considered contenders anyway? While it would be foolish to count anyone completely out in March, none of them were among the better performed teams last season, and they actually all fell away as the season went on. Carlton has won only two out of their past ten matches, Fremantle has lost their past five, and Port Adelaide suffered a big loss in the finals at home to Geelong before rallying to a close (though impressive) win the next week.

In the rankings, they are in the middle, about dead on average. Certainly things can change over the course of a season, and they could still be premiership contenders. (They could also get worse.) For now though, they seem a fair way off the pace of the competition’s best teams.*

*Watch now as Carlton beat Hawthorn on Thursday night.