AFL Rankings: Round 18 2020

Port Adelaide and Brisbane have the home finals, but Richmond and Geelong look to be slightly ahead as the leading contenders for this year’s premiership.

After a home-and-away season unlike any other, we have our eight finals teams. Port Adelaide finished on top of the ladder, where they had spent the entirety of the season. The Brisbane Lions took advantage of a season played largely in their home state of Queensland to finish second. The last three premiership teams – Richmond, West Coast, and the Western Bulldogs – are back for another run, along with recent finals stalwarts Geelong and Collingwood. Finally, a much improved St. Kilda team have made it back for the first time in nine years.

Who do the rankings like for the premiership? In what may be good news for Cats fans, or bad news given how last year turned out, the rankings are picking Geelong for the second straight year (see table below). It is not a pick made with much confidence however, with predictions for several very close matches.

Heading into the finals series the favourite for the premiership is Richmond, followed by Geelong and Brisbane. In response, the ‘hip’ pick for the flag this week seems to be Port Adelaide, with people arguing they were being underrated given they had spent the whole season on top.

While this year’s fixture first seemed like it would be more even than usual, with each team playing each other once and many games at neutral venues, in reality it gave some teams a massive net home ground advantage. (Not the greater home ground neutrality previously suggested on this blog.) As Max Barry at Squiggle has pointed out, with home ground advantage based on state, Port Adelaide played six games with home ground advantage this year, compared with two with a disadvantage. Things were even better for Brisbane, although the exact count of how many games they had an advantage in depends on how one treats their away matches on the Gold Coast.

In contrast, teams like Richmond and Collingwood had no games against non-Victorian sides before they had to leave Melbourne and move into their hubs. Some opposition supporters (and media) rarely miss a chance to point out how many games the Tigers and the Magpies usually get at the Melbourne Cricket Ground each year and therefore how little travelling they do, but really the majority of those games are against cross-town teams that have had to do about as little travel as they have. The ‘real’ home ground advantage comes when playing teams from out of town.

Port Adelaide is definitely a decent chance to win the flag. The 2020 Grand Final however will not be played in Adelaide, but in Brisbane. Of the top four sides the rankings currently do not favour Port in a Grand Final match-up with any of the others – Geelong and Richmond because the rankings consider them stronger teams, and Brisbane because of the Lions’ home ground advantage. The Power are still considered a good chance to make it to the Grand Final though, with potentially two home finals.

Overall though, even Richmond is less than a 30 per cent chance with the bookmakers, and it would not greatly surprise to see any of the top four teams hoist the cup at year’s end. Really, would a winner from outside the top four be a surprise either? Perhaps the main surprise of this year’s AFL finals series – albeit a pleasant one – is that we got to this point at all.

AFL Rankings: Round 17 2020

AFL Rankings: Round 16 2020

AFL Rankings: Round 15 2020

AFL Rankings: Round 14 2020

 Melbourne has powered into finals contention on the back of its ‘fab four’.

The Demons are one of the better teams again

After an excellent 2018, and a disappointing 2019, it was hard to know what to expect from Melbourne this season. The Demons did not start off the season in sparkling form; they lost a close match to Geelong, but otherwise were not overly impressive in their first five matches. The first hint that they may have turned a bit of a corner was their seven-goal demolition of Hawthorn, where their stars (more on them below) went berserk.

In recent weeks, Melbourne has shown some more of that form, and the form that got them into the finals two season ago. They had three successive wins by more than 50 points, which is pretty impressive even when you consider the quality of their opposition (see chart above) – though Collingwood are no easybeats. 

Last week’s loss against the Bulldogs had many questioning whether it was yet another false dawn, but this week’s close win against fellow finals aspirant St. Kilda may have some Demons’ fans believing again. Only the red-hot Geelong Cats have bettered Melbourne’s average adjusted net margin of +27 points over their past five matches.

As much as I sometimes wish to highlight particular players on this blog, generally the contribution of a team’s players in Australian football is fairly even, and a team’s performance is more reliant on the quality of twenty players rather than just a few. Melbourne’s playing list however, is more lop-sided than most.

Big Maxy, Clarry, Trac, and Viney

As of the end of Round 14, Melbourne has four of the top twenty-five players on the AFL’s Player Ratings for the season: ruck Max Gawn, and midfielders Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca (the #1 player), and Jack Viney.  

While the Player Ratings sometimes is subject to raised eyebrows – such as this week when GWS forward Jake Riccardi kicked four goals and was rated the worst player on the ground – it is fairly easy to demonstrate the value of these players using less advanced measures.

Max Gawn, as is well-known, is one of the most effective rucks in the game. Currently in season 2020 he ranks second for hit outs per game, behind Brodie Grundy. Another part of what makes him really valuable though is his marking around the ground – he ranks seventh for contested marks per game in 2020, well ahead of many other top ruckman (see table below).

Meanwhile, Oliver, Petracca and Viney – as the AFL Player Ratings suggest – are possibly the most effective ‘inside’ midfield trio in the game. (Though Dogs fans will note their star midfield beat them handily last week.) All rank within the top twenty for contested possessions per game, with Oliver (#2) and Petracca (#4) sitting in the top five (see table below). No other team has three of the top 20. Oliver and Viney also rank in the top twenty for clearances per game. All three rank in the top 50 for metres gained per game, with Oliver kicking the ball more this season. Petracca, while not ranking as high for clearances, has continued to be an attacking weapon and ranks second for score involvements.

Will it be enough though to get the Demons into the finals? There’s still eighteen other players in the team who will determine Melbourne’s fate. The recent good form of defenders Steven May and Jake Lever helped get the Demons across the line on the weekend. If they can continue to support their star midfield, then Melbourne could cause some trouble this Septem - … er, October.

AFL Rankings: Round 13 2020

 

AFL Rankings: Round 12 2020

The Geelong Cats have become the most in-form side in the AFL by playing ‘keepings off’.

The Geelong Cats have become more of a premiership fancy over the past couple of weeks, with ten goal wins against St. Kilda and ladder leader Port Adelaide. The Cats have been a perennial finalist since their last premiership in 2011, but have not made it back to the Grand Final since. This has given them the label of essentially being ‘good, but not good enough’. However their two impressive wins has many reporters and commentators suggesting that things may be different this year. 

It may seem odd to say that Geelong were not a contender last year when they finished as the minor premier. They were at the top of these rankings for much of last year, and going into the finals. They did however notably slow down in the second half of the year, with an average net margin adjusted for opponent strength and home ground advantage of +12 points after their big win against Richmond, compared to +32 points in their first 12 matches.

The Geelong team of recent weeks has risen back to the form they showed during the first half of 2019. Over their past five weeks their average adjusted net margin is +40 points (see chart above), which also includes comfortable wins against Fremantle and North Melbourne, and a narrow loss to fellow premiership contender West Coast. Their run of form has given them the biggest increase in ranking points aside from Melbourne over that period, and now has them sitting on top of the rankings.

But as watchers of the Cats over the past two games would know, there is something different about their style of football this year. They seem to have taken a leaf out of the playbook of their 21^st century nemesis Hawthorn, and are favouring more short, precise kicks to hold on to the ball and move it forward.

The Cats play the uncontested game

Geelong leads the AFL this year for disposal, mark and uncontested possession differentials with their opponents, which is indicative of their increased tendency to chip the ball around (see table below). Their advantages were even greater in these areas in their two big wins against the Saints and Power. Last year, the Cats were outside the top four in all of these categories. Over the past couple of years it has been Collingwood, and last year GWS, that have used the high-possession game to most success, but Geelong is proving adept at it this season.

Several Cats have seen their disposal counts rise this year, generally the smaller players around the flanks (see table below). Two midfielders though have really seen their production grow, and have arguably been key to the Cats’ style of play in recent weeks. One is wingman Sam Menegola, while the other is Cameron Guthrie. Their disposal counts have increased significantly even without adjusting for the shorter game time this year; after adjustment their increases are even more impressive.

This is not to say that the Cats have not been good at the contested footy as well. While not as large as their uncontested possession advantage, the Cats also rank first for contested possession differential this year. Big forward Tom Hawkins dragged down an astonishing seven contested marks against Port Adelaide, although the Cats don’t rank quite as highly over the season in this category.

Will things be different this year come finals time for the Cats? It is the question that has been asked for seemingly much of the last decade. But most of their players appear to be in peak form at the moment, and as long as they can keep purring along like this, they’ll give themselves the best possible chance to finally break through to the top again.

AFL Rankings: Round 11 2020