AFL Rankings: Round 6 2020

A significant proportion of home ground advantage in the AFL has probably been neutralised this season. For non-Victorian teams, this may the best year to be good, and the worst year to be ‘bad’.

In the most recent round of AFL matches, due to the restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic – particularly in relation to Victoria – no team played in its home state. This continues the pattern this year of more games taking place in ‘neutral’ territory, as teams have had to play for several weeks in ‘hubs’ due to border restrictions between Australian states. In the first six rounds of this season, I consider that 30 matches have taken place on ‘neutral’ ground, up from 19 in the first six rounds last season (I assign no home ground advantage for two Victorian teams playing at the MCG or Marvel Stadium).

With Victorian teams the most affected, non-Victorian teams could end up playing more games in their home state than away from it. Even if they do not though, having more games in neutral territory may be a bonus compared to previous years – that is, if you are a good team.

Good teams should want less home ground advantage

Home ground advantage brings volatility to results. If you are a good team, and the main outcome you care about is either win or lose, you want as little volatility in results as possible.

Let’s consider the example of two premiership contenders: the Yarras from Victoria and the Black Swans from Western Australia. Let’s assume they are both ten points better on average than everyone else, and that home ground advantage is two goals.

Now the Black Swans will play 11 matches at home with a two goal home ground advantage, and 11 matches away with a two goal home disadvantage. With plenty of Victorian teams in the competition though, the Yarras play ten games against other Victorian teams, six games in Victoria against non-Victorian teams, and six games outside of Victoria.

In this example, the Black Swans will start favourites only in their 11 home games. The Yarras will start favourites in 16 games. Basically the Black Swans’ home ground advantage strengthens them in games they are expected to win anyway, but they are at a disadvantage more often against poorer teams than the Yarras are. This is an extreme example, and the number of expected wins would be closer than this, but this gives the general idea.

On the other hand, if you are a ‘bad’ team you want this volatility. Home ground advantage may help you to get some wins against teams that are better.

The fixture is a fairly minor part in where your team finishes compared to ability. Since the AFL started there have been plenty of non-Victorian teams that have finished on top of the ladder, or on the bottom. Also, there is going to be so much uncertainty this season around where games and finals are played that this effect is going to be low down on any team’s concerns about fixturing. Still, every little bit helps if you are aiming for a flag.