AFL Power Rankings: Round 16 2019

Of the main premiership contenders West Coast is in good form, Collingwood has fallen out of form, Geelong and GWS may be stuttering slightly, and we are still getting a handle on a ‘full-strength’ Richmond.

A premiership race in five, that became three, is five again

About nine or ten rounds into the 2019 AFL season there seemed to be five main premiership contenders: reigning premiers West Coast, 2017 premiers Richmond, and ladder leaders Geelong, Collingwood, and Greater Western Sydney.

Then in Round 12 it seemed more like a ‘race in three’. An injury-depleted Tigers got destroyed by Geelong, West Coast were well beaten (by Sydney), and Collingwood had a strong win in the Queen’s Birthday match.

Move forward to Round 16, and West Coast and Richmond are considered among the leading flag contenders again. Both won by over 90 points on the weekend. With TAB, the Eagles and Tigers – along with Geelong, GWS, and Collingwood – are shorter than $10 to win the premiership, and no other team is shorter than $20.

West Coast is rising, Collingwood is falling, and we are not clear about the Tigers

Of the five main premiership contenders, West Coast seems to currently be in the best form. Its average net margin over its past five matches, adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, is +26 (see chart below), even better than Geelong’s +18. The Eagles did get somewhat lucky by the Dockers scoring only two goals from 21 scoring shots on the weekend. On the other hand, the Eagles scored only 14 goals from 36 scoring shots against Essendon two weeks before.

Collingwood has been a below average team over its past five matches. The Magpies have lost to North Melbourne, Hawthorn, and Fremantle, and had a narrow win against the Bulldogs. It may be just a temporary slump, or it may be that their ‘peak’ ends up having been the 2018 finals, and the first few rounds of 2019.

Richmond has been a below average team over its past five matches as well. The Tigers had three fairly horrid losses in that stretch against North Melbourne, Geelong, and Adelaide. After their bye though they had several of their best players return, and have performed more like the strong side we saw in late-2017 and 2018. Richmond’s average net margin over its past three matches – even adjusted for the weakness of its past two opponents – is +24 (see chart below).

Meanwhile Geelong has lost two of its past three matches, and has a three-round average adjusted net margin of just +1. GWS has also lost two of its past three, and its three-round average is +3.

Before its recent drop in form though the Cats did clobber Richmond, and are still easily the highest-ranked team. They may be stuttering a little, but if I had to name the team I thought was most likely to win the 2019 premiership, Geelong would be it.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 15 2019

North Melbourne has improved its performances considerably in the four matches since Rhyce Shaw became coach, but it is not quite the season’s most ‘out of the box’ month-long stretch.

From Brad Scott to Rhyce Shaw and upwards

Around the time of North Melbourne’s Round 10 match against the Western Bulldogs, coach Brad Scott – the team’s coach for almost a decade – decided to leave the club mid-season. Despite their win against the Dogs, the Kangaroos at the time had only three wins from ten matches. Following Scott’s departure assistant coach Rhyce Shaw was named as the ‘caretaker’ for the rest of the season.

Since Shaw’s appointment, North Melbourne has gone from a below average team to one of the league’s better sides. It has beaten two of last year’s top four teams – Richmond and Collingwood – by around 40 points each. It also comfortably beat the Gold Coast Suns, with its only loss coming to GWS. The Kangaroos have surged on the rankings, gaining two goals worth of ranking points, and jumping from fourteenth to seventh.

This turnaround must be due to Rhyce Shaw, right? Give him the permanent coaching gig! Well, it could be the case that Shaw’s coaching is largely responsible for turning the Kangaroos’ performances around. But four-week stretches such as these, where a team performs significantly better than it has done for the rest of the season, are not unheard of.

The Kangaroos’ hot form is unusual, but not overly so

North Melbourne’s recent jump in form, compared to its overall performances for the season, is arguably not even the ‘hottest’ four-round stretch this season. Based on my adjusted net margins, that could be St. Kilda during Rounds 2 to 5 (see table below).

The Saints were not as good as North have been, but compared to their overall season form (not great) it was a pretty good stretch. They beat Melbourne easily, beat Essendon and Hawthorn, and came within a goal of beating Fremantle playing away. Since that stretch though, sixth-year coach Alan Richardson has come under ever-increasing media scrutiny about his job security.

Essendon also had a similarly improved stretch during Rounds 3 to 6, when they thrashed North Melbourne and Brisbane, beat Melbourne, and almost beat Collingwood. Their coach, John Worsfold, is in his fourth year at the club. And the other team I rate as having a big jump in form is Sydney during their recent climb up the ladder, with a coach – rumoured Kangaroos coaching target John Longmire – that has been in charge for almost a decade.

In the end though, it’s not the improvement for North Melbourne that matters most, but the level that it is playing at. The Kangaroos’ average adjusted net margin over their past four matches is over four goals. If a Rhyce Shaw-led side can consistently play at that level, then North Melbourne should be more than happy with where they are at.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 14 2019

AFL Power Rankings: Round 13 2019

If my rankings' predictions were being used on Squiggle, I'd be at the top of the leaderboard. Just saying guys. :)

(Of course, if they were near the bottom, I'd be dead quiet about that...)

AFL Power Rankings: Round 12 2019

Nothing will ever diminish the West Coast Eagles’ 2018 premiership triumph, but they are far from the most fearsome ‘reigning premier’ we have had.

The reigning premier is clearly not the best team so far

The title of ‘reigning premier’ deservedly carries a lot of weight. Like a boxing heavyweight champion, the team that won the premiership last season is often season as the ‘team to beat’, up until the point that they are eliminated from the current season’s finals race.

In 2019 the title of reigning premier belongs to the West Coast Eagles. Halfway through the season the Eagles are hardly looking like the fearsome ‘team to beat’. They sit fourth, with eight wins out of 12 matches, three wins behind pace-setters Geelong.

More worryingly, they have a percentage of only 103.0. The Eagles have been well-beaten three times this season by teams that are merely around average: by Brisbane in the opening round by 44 points, by Port Adelaide at home by 58 points, and this weekend by Sydney by 45 points. (They were also beaten by Geelong by 42 points.)

West Coast’s average net margin this season, adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, is only +3 points (see chart below). Clearly, the Eagles to date in 2019 are not the most dominant reigning champion we’ve had.

The Eagles were not a dominant premiership team

A premiership is a premiership, and always deserved. West Coast was fantastic in last year’s finals series, with an average adjusted margin of +37 points (see chart above). The Eagles beat Collingwood twice – including once at the MCG – and destroyed Melbourne in the preliminary final. When fully fit, they may have been the best team for the year.

As far as premiership teams go, the 2018 Eagles were hardly the most dominant (see table below). They were probably similar to the 2017 Tigers, and slightly better than the 2016 Bulldogs. According to the rankings however, every other premiership team this decade was considerably better.

Further, last year’s West Coast team may not have even been the strongest Eagles team this decade (see table below). I’d say that was the 2015 Grand Final team, that had a percentage (after finals) of 142.8, but who ran into the triple-premiership winning Hawthorn side. Arguably the 2011 and 2012 sides were about as good as last year’s premiership team as well – their ranking points and percentages were similar.

The 2018 Eagles team benefitted from not having a ‘great’ opponent, or even too many ‘very good’ sides, in its way. (Richmond was possibly great early in the season, but had fallen off somewhat by the finals series.)

The low-rated midfield

Champion Data somewhat controversially rated West Coast’s playing list as only the eleventh strongest heading into the season, and its midfield way down in fifteenth. That may seem laughable to some who saw Luke Shuey and Dom Sheed tearing it up on Grand Final day.

As highlighted by HPN a few weeks back though, the Eagles are pretty low down in terms of their inside 50 differential with their opponents this season (currently fifteenth). They also rank low in differentials for disposals (sixteenth), and centre clearances (last). They’re not exactly lighting it up on the main midfield indicators.

Champion Data rated Luke Shuey, Elliot Yeo, and Andrew Gaff as above average midfielders. However, it rated Dom Sheed, Mark Hutchings and Chris Masten as below average (that rating may have changed for Sheed this season). In other words, Champion Data rated the Eagles as having little midfield depth, and no player among the very best midfielders – not even Gaff, who gets a lot of possessions, but who also has a low average number of metres gained per disposal for a wingman. (Shuey, last year’s Norm Smith Medallist, was of course ‘elite’ on the day that mattered most.)

West Coast is still a good side. After each of their three premierships the Eagles have been a finals side the next season, but not a huge premiership threat. This year – on their form – doesn’t look like changing that pattern.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 11 2019

Fremantle is the most improved team this season, having once again become a hard team to score against.

Based on each team’s change in ranking points so far in 2019, the Fremantle Dockers are the most improved team this season (see table below). Their ranking points have improved by about four goals, and they have gone from being considered one of the worst teams to around average. Excluding Carlton and Gold Coast – both of whom had hardly anywhere to go but up – no other team has improved by more than seven rankings points this season, not even Brisbane (the big improvers on the ladder).

Fremantle has been better than average this season though. Their current ranking is dragged down by having an average net margin, adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, of -28 points over the second half of 2018 (see chart below). In the first half of 2019, it is +8 points.

The Dockers’ rise in ranking however has largely been driven by their performances in three of those 11 matches. They are: their opening round smashing of North Melbourne, and their impressive wins away against top teams GWS and Collingwood. Outside of those three matches the Dockers have been slightly below average (which is still a large improvement on last season’s performances)

After generally leaking goals since their 2015 Grand Final appearance Fremantle has once again become a hard team to score against, having conceded the second-least points this season. The Dockers are conceding on average 70 points a game, way down from 93 points a game in 2018.

This is despite none of their defenders being particularly highly rated or ranking particularly highly in any category, apart from Luke Ryan and his ability to intercept. Collectively though, while players such as Alex Pearce barely impact the stats sheet, Fremantle has conceded the least marks inside 50 and the least goal assists.

I still wouldn’t be racing to put money on the Dockers to finish highly (if I raced to put money on anything at all). They are looking a lot closer to it though than I would have thought at the start of the season.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 10 2019

Without Tom Mitchell, Hawthorn appears to be a decent but middle-of-the-pack side.

The Hawks haven't been quite as good this year

Hawthorn – the most successful team of the 2010s – finished fourth on the ladder last year after the home and away season, though there were probably a couple of teams below the Hawks that were better. This year one could have predicted the Hawks to finish anywhere from fourth to twelfth, and probably got a fair amount of agreement either way. Where is Hawthorn actually at?

Hawthorn did finish off last year’s home and away season well, winning ten of their last twelve matches. Even accounting for some weak opposition, the Hawks’ results were pretty good (see chart below). Their finals series was not good though, with Richmond and Melbourne eliminating them fairly comfortably.

This year, the Hawks have been slightly above average, and sit about in the middle of both the ladder and the rankings. They’ve had some impressive wins against Adelaide away, GWS, and Port Adelaide (the latter over this past weekend). They’ve also had some bad losses against the Bulldogs and St. Kilda, and a narrow win against Carlton.

Missing Tom Mitchell

In 2018 Brownlow Medal-winning midfielder Tom Mitchell set a season record for disposals, and also recorded the second-highest ever number of clearances. Unfortunately Mitchell will miss the entire 2019 season with a broken leg. How much are the Hawks missing Mitchell?

Quite a bit. No one player is going to significantly make or break a football side of twenty-two players. Hawthorn is down a bit though in some of the main statistics that rely heavily on midfield performance (see table below). The Hawks rank last this year in clearance differential with their opponents, and are no longer among the top teams for inside 50 differential as they were last year.

Some of Mitchell’s production has been picked up others, in particular Jaegar O’Meara and James Worpel. It’s tough though to completely replace Mitchell’s 35 disposals, eight clearances, and five inside 50s per game, and the increases in output from O’Meara and Worpel compared to last season haven’t done it. Both are doing more, but neither would be considered among the best ‘inside’ midfielders. Ricky Henderson’s improvement – at over 30 years of age – has been more significant, but while he replaces some of Mitchell’s work in terms of gaining possessions and metres, he doesn’t replace Mitchell’s work in contests.

The Hawks may still finish as a top six side, particularly if they play like they did against Port. Or they may still finish twelfth. As impressive as they’ve been at times though, they’re probably not challenging for a premiership until they at least see the return of their star midfielder, and more besides.

AFL Power Rankings: Round 9 2019