AFL Power Rankings: Round 5 2019

Collingwood and Essendon may be set up for their most intriguing ANZAC Day match this decade.

The ANZAC Day match between Collingwood and Essendon is always a ‘blockbuster’ in terms of occasion. This year though it could be called one based on the teams’ form as well. Collingwood and Essendon are both currently quite good. It is the first time this decade that both teams have over 15 ranking points heading into the ANZAC Day match (see chart below).

Since the rankings began in 2011, the only time they have both come close to this mark is in 2013. That year Collingwood finished sixth after the home and away season, and Essendon would have finished seventh if they had not been disqualified from the finals due to their supplements program. The ANZAC Day match itself though was a fizzer, with the Bombers winning easily.

There is one other year where one could argue the teams were about as strong as 2013. Probably the best ANZAC Day match this decade was Collingwood’s one-point win in Essendon’s ill-fated 2012 season. The Magpies were coming off a Grand Final appearance in 2011. The Bombers were not highly rated by the rankings going into that match due to some thrashings in the back end of 2011. However they had still made the finals that year, and had started off well in 2012.

In all other years this decade heading into the ANZAC Day match, at least one of Collingwood or Essendon (usually the Bombers) have been ranked below average. After five rounds of the 2019 season though, Collingwood and Essendon both sit at three wins and two losses. This comes after both teams had pretty good finishes to 2018 (see charts below).

Looking over their past 22 matches, the Magpies have actually had a somewhat unusual pattern of performances, in that they seem to have a really strong performance every few weeks to stoke the premiership ‘hype’. Their six very good wins in that time have been against Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond twice, and then Brisbane this week. Aside from those games, the Magpies have been merely slightly above average, although they have also had no real poor performances in that period outside of those against their nemesis West Coast.

The Bombers have not been quite as good over that time, and have also had some poor patches which contributed to them missing the finals in 2018 despite their strong finish. Their nadir last year was arguably their Round 8 loss to bottom-placed Carlton, in a match where they had seven more scoring shots, although they got thumped by Richmond in the Dreamtime match a few weeks later. Essendon’s ‘bad’ early season form and subsequent turnaround gave them the look of inconsistency, but as the season went on the turnaround became more sustained. Then this year they started off badly with losses to GWS and St. Kilda, but have since strung together three decent wins.

Essendon could be seen as sort of your typical ‘above-average’ side, in that they are average to good in most aspects, without being particularly great in any of them. Even their three best midfielders – Zach Merrett, Dyson Heppell, and Dylan Shiel – kind of fit the ‘above average but not elite’ mould, having earned one All-Australian selection each. Still, while that may seem like modest praise, it’s probably better than most of what Bomber fans have experienced over the past five years.

The Magpies meanwhile have possibly the most-heralded midfield in the competition, although only Scott Pendlebury is a multiple All-Australian. They were strong last year in disposals, hit outs, clearances, inside 50s, and tackles – though so far they are not ranked highly in those last three categories this season.

Actually, while this shapes as the strongest ANZAC Day matchup in years, both Collingwood and Essendon may not be that much better than they were in 2013, when they finished in the bottom half of the eight. That they are nevertheless currently both ‘top five’ sides on these rankings may indicate how even the competition is this year.