AFL Rankings: Round 22 2022

 

It has been a tumultuous week so far at Essendon, following their 84-point loss on the weekend. A great deal of uncertainty reportedly exists as to who will be coaching them or in the football department next season. One football show I watched last night started with a montage of Essendon’s worst performances during the season, creating an image of a team that has just about hit rock bottom.

It hasn’t been quite as bad as that for the Bombers this season, but probably somewhat disappointing after their strong end to the 2021 home-and-away season. Putting aside expectations, certainly they have not been as poorly performed as West Coast or North Melbourne this year (see table below). From Rounds 16 to 18 they had an impressive stretch of form, beating Sydney and Brisbane – who will both play finals this year – and easily beating Gold Coast.

On the other hand, there are half a dozen ‘poor’ losses that stand out for Essendon across the season (see table above). These are: their 66-point loss in the opening round to Geelong, their 48-point loss to Fremantle in Victoria, their 58-point loss to Sydney (where Swan Luke Parker mocked their willingness to contest), their loss to the Eagles, and their recent losses to GWS and Port Adelaide. That they were favourite or close to favourite in four of those matches haven’t helped perceptions about their effort.

Ultimately, the Bombers have dropped off compared with last season, but their fall is possibly a little overblown. Their differentials in most major categories are negative but not horrendous. Their ‘double up’ fixtures of Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood, Richmond, and Port Adelaide has not been the easiest of runs, and if not for an after-the-siren loss they would have come out of those fixtures relatively OK. Prolonged absences from two of their stars of last season – Darcy Parish and Jake Stringer – have hurt.

Not much of which will be comfort to a club and supporter base that has not won a final in 18 years. But even though this season has definitely been a step back, it has not all been the catastrophe it has seemed over the past fortnight.

AFL Rankings: Round 21 2022

 

During the first half of this season the Fremantle Dockers were widely considered to be one of the big improvers, and perhaps a contender for the premiership, particularly after they beat both Geelong and Melbourne in Victoria. They won 10 of their first 13 matches, and then have dropped off a bit by winning only three of their seven matches (with one draw) since. Where do they sit now?

The rankings currently have them as sixth, which is probably around where most people see them. The rankings pretty much agree with the ‘win-loss’ column here; the Dockers were considered to be significantly better over their first 13 matches with an average adjusted net margin of 16 points, compared to their past seven matches with an average adjusted net margin of -2 points. Their ranking has still improved in recent weeks however as last year’s performances have gradually been removed.

Earlier in the season, the Dockers basically improved all over the ground, though particularly in defence. Their points per inside 50 and inside 50 differential improved significantly from 2021, and their opposition points per inside 50 decreased to be one of the best in the league (see below).

Part of this could be attributed to their greater reliance on ‘chipping’ the ball around to get it out of defence and advance it forward. The Dockers lead the league in uncontested possessions. Seven Dockers – ‘inside’ midfielders Andrew Brayshaw, Will Brodie, and Caleb Serong, ‘outside’ midfielders Blake Acres and James Aish, and defenders Jordan Clark and Hayden Young – are in the top 60 for average uncontested possessions per match this season. Indeed one could say the distinction between ‘inside’ and ‘outside’ midfielders is not that clear with Brayshaw getting plenty of possession on the ‘wings’ this season.

This weight of uncontested possession has kept up over the past seven matches (see table above), as has the efficiency within the 50 metre arcs. What has fallen in actually the Dockers’ ability to get the ball inside 50 relative to the opposition, with Carlton, Sydney, and Melbourne all winning the inside 50 count by big margins when they played them. To some degree this may be teams working out how to counter the Dockers’ uncontested game style once they get into the middle of the ground. While Carlton smashed Freo in the clearances, Sydney and Melbourne were around level with the Dockers in that area, suggesting it was in the ‘uncontested’ part of the game where they were able to counter.

This gives an overall sense of a team that was able to get the ‘jump’ on others earlier in the season, but which the top teams have now been able to ‘work out’. Still Fremantle remain near the top of the ladder. For a team that has missed the finals for several years this season is still a major improvement, and they are now set to get some valuable finals experience in a month’s time.

AFL Rankings: Round 20 2022

 

The GWS Giants have largely been seen a massive disappointment this season, only sitting above the historically poor Eagles and Roos on the ladder, with five wins. Long-time coach Leon Cameron resigned during the season, and interim coach Mark McVeigh questioned on the weekend whether a large part of the team had ‘checked out’. Further (and perhaps not unrelated) there is speculation that young midfielders Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto could be on the move at the end of the season, as GWS tries to re-balance its playing list.

Not much of this was widely expected from a team that made the finals last season, and are only three years removed from their Grand Final appearance. The Giants – rightly or wrongly – are still perceived to have one of the most talented midfields in the competition, with Hopper and Taranto, along with Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio, Lachie Whitfield, Callan Ward, and Tom Green. How can a list so talented be so far down the ladder?

There are probably two main misconceptions about the Giants. The first misconception is that they are stacked with talent: in the past five years they have lost Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Zac Williams, Devon Smith, Jeremy Finlayson, Matthew Kennedy, Nathan Wilson, Aidan Corr, and Rory Lobb to other teams when they have still had a good few years of football in them. That weight of departures has to weaken your team at some point.

The second misconception is that they have been one of the best teams of the past few years. The Giants’ peak year was their preliminary final appearance in 2016. That is when the perception of the Giants as a top class midfield solidified in fans’ minds, as they easily outpaced opponents for clearances, contested possessions, inside 50s, and disposals per match (see table below). Their defence was also pretty good in that year. Since then they have gradually lost their advantage in all of these areas. Even their Grand Final season of 2019 seemed better than it was thanks to a couple of (memorable) close finals wins; they were actually behind on inside 50 differential that season. Now in 2022 they are behind in all of the aforementioned categories.

Of their playing group, many have either left or declined from that Grand Final season. Kelly and Coniglio are still stars, although given the amount of salary cap space their contracts take they probably need to be closer to the league’s best midfield combinations such as Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca. Green, Sam Taylor, Harry Perryman, Isaac Cumming, and Harry Himmelberg have also emerged as solid players. Whitfield and Hopper have had injury-interrupted seasons however, while few would argue that Ward, Phil Davis, Nick Haynes, or even Toby Greene are as strong as they were a few years back. The Giants (somewhat understandably) have found it hard to replace Jeremy Cameron – particularly with Finlayson also departing – but Williams was probably an underrated loss given his disposal efficiency bringing the ball out of defence, and Heath Shaw was also solid down back during the Giants’ strongest years.

And now the Giants face losing even more players. They seem to be heading down a path of having some high-priced stars (Kelly, Coniglio, and Whitfield), squeezing out the next tier (Hopper and Taranto), and then hoping for similar production from lower-priced players and rookies. Given that half a dozen inside midfield players cannot all attend the same centre bounce – a problem that plagued Leon Cameron’s tenure – this may not be a bad path to take. But it might be at least a couple of years yet before we see the Giants back challenging for a flag.

AFL Rankings: Round 19 2022

AFL Rankings: Round 18 2022

 

AFL Rankings: Round 17 2022

Collingwood have won their past seven matches in a row, and sit sixth on the ladder. They are twelfth on the rankings. Why the big difference?

The majority of those seven wins by Collingwood have been by small margins, of seven points or less (see table below). If they had lost all of those close games they would currently be twelfth on the ladder. That doesn’t explain everything – winning all of those close games was somewhat ‘lucky’, but similarly it would have been somewhat ‘unlucky’ to have lost all of them – but it shows there was a fine margin involved in their current lofty ladder spot.

The Magpies’ latest close win was against lowly-ranked North Melbourne, which means they actually lost a couple of ranking points on the weekend. However, their average net margin over the past seven weeks adjusted for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage is similar to their average unadjusted net margin – mainly helped by their impressive win against top-ranked Melbourne.

The main reason the rankings still have the Magpies in the bottom half is that they have only performed like a ‘top eight’ side for the past seven weeks. Indeed their average margin over that time would have them around the top four ranked sides. However, they were only around an average team over the first half of the season, and they were a bottom-ranked side last season. Both of these periods are still to some extent affecting their ranking.

In summary, Collingwood haven’t been quite as dominant as a team with seven straight wins might usually be given some close results, although they have still been pretty good. But before those wins they were around or below average, and that still factors into the rating of them. If the Magpies can keep up the performances of the past couple of months, then the expectations of the rankings – and probably those of the wider football world – will adjust to consider them a stronger premiership threat.

AFL Rankings: Round 16 2022

AFL Rankings: Round 15 2022

 

Geelong are second on the ladder, and Richmond are ninth. Geelong has a higher points differential, scoring shot differential, inside 50 differential, and ‘possession chain’ differential than Richmond this season (see table below). Why are Richmond ranked higher?

According to the rankings Richmond have had a slightly tougher fixture so far in 2022. Richmond’s average net margin in 2022 adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength is 1.9 points higher than their average ‘raw’ net margin (see table below). In contrast, Geelong’s average adjusted net margin is 4.4 points lower than their average ‘raw’ net margin.

This ‘tougher’ fixture for Richmond mainly comes down to small differences – the Tigers have played Melbourne whereas Geelong hasn’t, and they haven’t played North Melbourne. If these matches were taken out Richmond’s average ‘raw’ net margin would actually be slightly higher than Geelong’s so far this season (see table above).

On the other hand, Richmond’s average net margin is driven a lot by their 109 point win against West Coast. If their games against the Eagles were excluded, Geelong average ‘raw’ net margin would actually be about two goals higher than Richmond’s.

In summary, they are probably similar, although Geelong does seem to have the more ‘sustainable’ profile of getting the ball and getting it into their forward line. We have seen this before though, with the Tigers stepping their performance up a notch in the finals. Geelong should have a better chance this year purely because they are currently seven spots higher on the ladder – but they would probably also want to keep things that way…