AFL Rankings: Round 13 2023

AFL Rankings: Round 12 2023

 

AFL Rankings: Round 11 2023

We’re now at the point of about halfway through the season, where the matches the ranking points include are eleven matches from 2022 (finals included), and eleven matches from 2023. The ranking points are more heavily weighted to recent matches, so 2023 matches currently make up about three-quarters of a team’s ranking points. Nevertheless, it is interesting to see which teams are still relatively highly or lowly ranked because the ranking system still ‘remembers what they did last year’.

Collingwood, Brisbane, Melbourne: These teams are considered to have by far the strongest performances in 2023. All three teams have percentages (points for/points against) of over 120 in 2023.

Geelong, Sydney, Richmond: These teams currently sit outside the top eight on the AFL ladder, and are ranked where they are mainly due to their performances in the second half of last season. Geelong still looks strong despite recent losses, Sydney and Richmond are around average in 2023.

Port Adelaide: Didn’t make finals last year, but were actually pretty good with some close losses. Sitting second on ladder this year, but percentage is only 112, putting them in ‘second tier’ of sides for 2023 performances alone. 

Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon: Average or below average in second half of last season, but have improved to better than average this season with all of them in top eight of ladder.

Fremantle, St. Kilda, Carlton, Gold Coast: ‘Middle of pack’ teams this year and last season. However, there are more ‘middle of pack’ teams because the worst two teams are historically bad, so being ‘middle of pack’ can get you anywhere from about sixth to thirteenth.

GWS, Hawthorn: Below average last year, below average this year.

North Melbourne, West Coast: Horrible last year, horrible this year.

AFL Rankings: Round 10 2023

The Lions are ‘actually’ in the top four

Last season, the Brisbane Lions won two finals – including an away win against Melbourne – and made the ‘final four’. However, that impressive win against Melbourne masked to some extent that the Lions were possibly not among the best four teams last season. Brisbane finished the home-and-away in sixth, with the fifth best percentage. Their net margin over their last nine home-and-away matches was only +1 (+6 adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength). They were possibly a score review away from being eliminated in the first week of the finals.

Coming into this season, optimism was high about the Lions being among the top premiership contenders. Their midfield was boosted by the additions of former Bulldog Josh Dunkley and ‘father-son’ phenomenon Will Ashcroft. They had been finalists for the past four seasons, and perhaps their time had finally come.

That optimism was dented by a big loss to Port Adelaide in the first round, where they had 19 less scoring shots, 25 less inside 50s, and 161 less possessions than the Power. However, since then things have been pretty good for the Lions, particularly in the past seven weeks. Their seven wins in a row have been by an average of 41 points, and while Collingwood is looking like the only finalist of the teams they beat, it’s still a dominant winning streak. They currently sit second on the AFL ladder after ten rounds.

Brisbane have been a high scoring team, both this season and last, averaging close to 100 points per game. Their defence this year however has allowed one less goal per game, and their average inside 50 differential per game has improved from 3.9 to 7.8. Their average clearance differential has improved from 0.7 to 5.7, with Lachie Neale ranking second for average clearances per game, and Dunkley and ruck Oscar McInerney in the top 25.

For all of that, the Lions are probably not that different in set-up and even in personnel from the past few years; they are just executing it better. Take the case of big forward Joe Daniher. Daniher is averaging three goals per game and four inside 50s (ranked third among key forwards), even while he has spent more time in the ruck. His kicking efficiency is at a career-high 64.5 per cent (career average 56.9 per cent). Can Daniher be expected to maintain this level? Maybe, maybe not – but it would certainly help the Lions continue to be among the best teams in the competition if, in his eleventh season, he could (his All-Australian season aside) finally ‘put it all together’.

AFL Rankings: Round 9 2023

AFL Rankings: Round 8 2023

The ‘little’ three

Last year North Melbourne and West Coast were two of the ‘worst’ AFL sides ever. Both came into the season with some hope they would improve; North Melbourne through the appointment of four-time premiership coach Alastair Clarkson, and West Coast through the return of experienced players. For the first couple of rounds at least, it looked like that might happen: the Kangaroos won their first two matches (though one was narrowly against the Eagles), and West Coast had an early win in Round 2. Since then however their results have taken a dive, and they are once again getting routinely well-beaten and looking like they will occupy the bottom spots on the AFL ladder.

Well, except for Hawthorn now being down there with them. The Hawks were not too bad last year, but the further departure of experienced players has seen them also suffer heavy losses this season, with their only win coming against the Roos. They currently sit at the bottom of the AFL ladder, just behind West Coast.

Is there anything to hearten supporters of these teams? For North Melbourne and West Coast it may be that they have actually been slightly less ‘bad’ this season, at least according to some main indicators. They are losing by less, gaining a bit more territory relative to their opponents, and getting more of the ball (see table below). In particular, North Melbourne has significantly improved its inside 50 differential, and while it is still not good, it is definitely a lot better than last year’s belting in this area.

Hawthorn is more of a curious case. They have significantly improved at winning the ball, in that their disposal, clearance, and contested possession differentials have improved from last season (see table above). Still their scoring and inside 50 differentials have dropped. The Hawks can win the ball with James Worpel and Will Day replacing Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara in the middle, but they are having more trouble keeping it.

Finally, these bottom teams are again making the rest of the competition look ‘better’ than usual. Two-thirds of the league now has above average or near-average rankings, according to my ranking system. The Roos, the Eagles – and now too the Hawks – all look like they still have a long way to catch up.

AFL Rankings: Round 7 2023

What do we make of Essendon, hey?

In 2021, Essendon finished eighth and made finals, winning half their games. In 2022, they finished fifteenth. After Round 5 this season they were second. Two rounds later, they are ninth. Are they a contender, or pretender, or what?

The answer may be they are average, neither a top team or a bottom team. Their current points on my rankings is almost zero – the definition of average – with a poor finish to last season balanced out by a good start to this season. This season they have beaten lower teams Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and GWS. They have lost to higher teams St. Kilda, Collingwood, and Geelong. The one game ‘out of the box’ was their strong win at Adelaide Oval against Melbourne.

Under new coach Brad Scott, Essendon have got better both in attack and defence this season. They are averaging 97 points per game, up from 79 points in 2022. They are conceding on average 87 points per game, down from 95 points in 2022. Their inside 50 differential and contested possession differentials have improved slightly (see table below), to be about on par with their opposition. One aspect that may please the Bombers’ staff and fans is they are second for tackle differential, averaging more than nine tackles per game than their opponents (Collingwood is first – yes, good teams can win the tackle count).

Essendon has had a stronger core of good performers so far this season. In 2022, only six Essendon players averaged more than 10 AFL Player Ratings points per game. In 2023 so far, there has been 14 players. Last season only four players averaged more than one coaches vote per game; this season there are eight.

So, what do we make of Essendon? They are competitive again, though probably not a top team unless they go up another notch. That at least has to be better than the club’s experience towards the end of last season.

AFL Rankings: Round 6 2023

Richmond may not have had the same success in 2022 as they had from 2017 to 2020, when they won three premierships, but they were an offensive machine, averaging almost 100 points per game. This year the scoring has not flowed nearly as easily and the Tigers are averaging around four goals less per game. Part of that is due to a drop in accuracy when kicking for goal, and part of it is due to lower inside 50 entries, but a significant part of it is due to less scoring shots per inside 50 (see table below). The Tigers not converting inside 50 dominance into scoring dominance was most notable in their draw against Carlton, and their recent loss to Melbourne.

This drop in ‘offensive efficiency’ can be due to worse delivery inside 50, or a drop in ability of the forwards to score from inside 50, or both. In this case, it is looking like a bit of both. The Tigers’ average turnovers and non-free kick clangers have increased, and they are averaging the most turnovers in the league (see table above). But also, their average marks inside 50 have dropped – though some may blame that mostly on worse delivery.

Much has been made of the lack of results so far from the Tigers’ big off-season recruits in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper. In 2022, as in season before that, the Tigers benefitted from relatively good inside 50 entries from Dustin Martin, Shai Bolton, and Jayden Short (see table below). The results of the recruits have been mixed. As has been well-noted elsewhere, Taranto’s kicking efficiency has been relatively poor, and even compared with similar midfielders like Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin last year, his turnovers and (non-free kick) clangers have been high. (The counter-argument on Taranto’s value is that his ball-winning ability is creating more opportunities for the team.) Hopper on the other hand has been pretty good, averaging the most inside 50s for the Tigers, but lower down for clangers and turnovers.

One thing of note among the Tigers’ main midfielders is that the average turnovers of players such as Martin, Bolton, and Marlion Pickett have increased, even though their non-free kick clangers are around the same as last season. That suggests the forwards are also having something to do with the drop in connections.

Richmond highly benefitted last year from great performances up forward by Tom Lynch and Shai Bolton. This season, Lynch has recently missed games through injury, and Bolton has been less of a focal point up forward with the inclusions of Samson Ryan and Noah Cumberland. In the games he has played, Lynch was still fairly good in terms of marks inside 50 and goals per game, but was not quite at the high levels he was last season (see table below). Ryan can’t really replace Lynch, though Jack Riewoldt has done an admirable job. Cumberland though has been less effective up forward after an impressive showing in the latter part of 2022, averaging less marks inside 50, less goals, and way more clangers.

The Tigers haven’t been particularly bad, despite winning only one game, with a relatively tough early fixture. They’ve come back a bit in terms of their top-end talent though, and their drop in performance in the forward line have possibly exposed Taranto’s weaknesses more. What looked like one last tilt at a flag may end up as a year in transition, moving on from the remaining three-time premiership stars to the next group that the Richmond fans hope will take their club forward to more success.