AFL WOMEN’S Power Rankings: Round 6 2019

The AFLW’s much-maligned conference system at least makes for an interesting final round to the season.

Usually I end each week’s discussion of the rankings with its predictions for the next round. This week I’m going to start with them.

It has been well noted by critics of the AFLW’s conference system that this year the two conferences are very uneven. The four best teams – Adelaide, Fremantle, Melbourne, and North Melbourne – are all in Conference A. As only the top two teams from each conference qualify for the finals, two of those teams will miss out.

It does however mean we have a more interesting set-up for the final round of the home and away season. Without the conference system the final four would almost be set in stone. Instead seven of the ten teams still have some chance of making it through.

Conference A

Top team Adelaide are very likely to go through. The Crows definitely qualify for the finals and finish top of Conference A with a win against Melbourne next week, which the rankings give them a 70 per cent chance of doing. Even if they lose, their percentage advantage over Melbourne gives them about an additional 20 per cent of making the finals. Conversely, Melbourne’s season is very likely to be over next week.

More interest lies in the Fremantle v North Melbourne match. With their big win on the weekend the Dockers have leapfrogged the Kangaroos in the rankings, and at home they are now considered a 67 per cent chance of beating the former premiership favourites. (In the case of a draw the Roos go through.) If the Crows lose the winner of this match will finish on top of Conference A.

Conference B

Last year’s bottom-placed team Carlton is almost certainly going to make the finals now, even if they do not win half their matches. The rankings give them about a 60 per cent chance of beating the Bulldogs next week. A loss is very unlikely to see them out though, as both Geelong has to win and Brisbane has to overcome a fairly significant percentage gap to overtake them. The Blues would still want to win next week though, in order to get a home final rather than a daunting away final against the top team from Conference A.

Geelong only has to win to beat out Brisbane for the other Conference B finals spot. The rankings give them a 65 per cent chance of doing so against the bottom-ranked GWS, even playing away. 

The Cats can still well make the finals with a loss. Brisbane are given only a 35 per cent chance of beating Collingwood at Victoria Park, keeping in mind the Magpies are yet to win a match this season. The Cats are also slightly ahead of the Lions on percentage.

Predicted finish

Conference A: Adelaide, Fremantle, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs.

Conference B: Carlton, Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood, GWS.