The AFLW’s much-maligned conference system
at least makes for an interesting final round to the season.
Usually
I end each week’s discussion of the rankings with its predictions for the next
round. This week I’m going to start with them.
It has
been well noted by critics of the AFLW’s conference system that this year the
two conferences are very uneven. The four best teams –
Adelaide, Fremantle, Melbourne, and North Melbourne – are all in Conference A.
As only the top two teams from each conference qualify for the finals, two of
those teams will miss out.
It
does however mean we have a more interesting set-up for the final round of the
home and away season. Without the conference system the final four would almost be set in stone. Instead seven of the ten teams still have some chance of making
it through.
Conference A
Top
team Adelaide are very likely to go through. The Crows definitely qualify for
the finals and finish top of Conference A with a win against Melbourne next
week, which the rankings give them a 70 per cent chance of doing. Even if they
lose, their percentage advantage over Melbourne gives them about an additional
20 per cent of making the finals. Conversely, Melbourne’s season is very likely
to be over next week.
More
interest lies in the Fremantle v North Melbourne match. With their big win on
the weekend the Dockers have leapfrogged the Kangaroos in the rankings, and at
home they are now considered a 67 per cent chance of beating the former
premiership favourites. (In the case of a draw the Roos go through.) If the Crows
lose the winner of this match will finish on top of Conference A.
Conference B
Last
year’s bottom-placed team Carlton is almost certainly going to make the finals
now, even if they do not win half their matches. The rankings give them about a
60 per cent chance of beating the Bulldogs next week. A loss is very unlikely
to see them out though, as both Geelong has to win and Brisbane has to overcome
a fairly significant percentage gap to overtake them. The Blues would still
want to win next week though, in order to get a home final rather than a daunting
away final against the top team from Conference A.
Geelong
only has to win to beat out Brisbane for the other Conference B finals spot. The
rankings give them a 65 per cent chance of doing so against the bottom-ranked
GWS, even playing away.
The
Cats can still well make the finals with a loss. Brisbane are given only a 35
per cent chance of beating Collingwood at Victoria Park, keeping in mind the
Magpies are yet to win a match this season. The Cats are also slightly ahead of
the Lions on percentage.
Predicted finish
Conference A: Adelaide, Fremantle, North
Melbourne, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs.
Conference B: Carlton,
Geelong, Brisbane, Collingwood, GWS.
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