Port Adelaide are in trouble but it is not quite as dire as it looks
Port Adelaide, having made the preliminary final the past two seasons, have zero wins and four losses, including a brutal loss after the siren to their arch-rival the Adelaide Crows (see video below, source: AFL on YouTube). This makes them the only winless team after four rounds, with some pressure mounting on long-time coach Ken Hinkley’s position.
Port have had an average point differential of -28 over the first four rounds, being comfortably beaten at home by Hawthorn and Melbourne. However, their average scoring shot differential is just -1, and they actually have positive inside 50, possession, and ‘possession chain’ differentials.
Port’s problems have in significant part come from not being able to efficiently convert forward 50 entries into points, both in terms of getting scoring shots once inside 50 and inaccuracy in their shots on goal. Their 3 points per scoring shot is the worst in the competition, well below the league average of 3.7 points.
They have also played Brisbane and Melbourne, two of the strongest teams in the league. Certainly they still would have expected to be 2-2 at this stage, and are paying the price for ‘poor’ losses to Hawthorn and Adelaide. However, in both matches their ‘expected score’ was much better than the final result. This suggests that their fall this season so far hasn’t been quite as drastic as the wins and losses columns currently indicate.
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