AFL Rankings: Round 5 2022

How far ahead are Melbourne?

Reigning premiers Melbourne are the only undefeated team five weeks into the season, and they haven’t looked close to losing a match so far. Compared to their apparent closest competitor the Brisbane Lions, the Demons are considered three goals better on my rankings, and according to betting markets have double the probability of winning the flag.

Melbourne has compiled easily the most ranking points over the first five rounds of this season (see table below). This includes comfortable wins over the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, GWS, and Essendon, who all finished in the top eight last year. The main note of caution here is that none of those teams currently sit inside the top eight this year, with three of them placed in the bottom five with two wins between them. Melbourne have been so dominant however that even if you shaved a couple of goals off their results they would still be considered the highest-performed team in 2022 so far.

As has been the case through Melbourne’s recent rise to becoming the preeminent team in the league, the Demons’ performances have been fuelled by a star-studded midfield being backed by a suffocating defence. The Demons have allowed only 60 points per game so far in 2022 from an average of 50 opposition inside 50s, so their opponents are scoring only 1.2 points per forward 50 entry – well below the league average of 1.6 points. Melbourne also ranks first in intercept differential (see table below), and second in contested possession differential, which are both good signs in being able to sustain another run at the flag.

A final note of caution though is that probably the last team to be this far ahead of the opposition was another team coming off a drought-breaking premiership: Richmond in the early rounds of 2018. The Tigers slowed down in the second half of that season, and did not end up winning the premiership – although they obviously more than made up for it with back-to-back flags in 2019 and 2020. Still, it is a reminder both that there is a long way to go in the season before the finals, and that the best team does not always win when you get there.