Anything major happen while
they were gone?
...
OK – so with the COVID-19
pandemic, there have been some changes to the 2020 AFL season. The
home and away season has been reduced from 22 matches per team to 17 matches,
and the length of quarters has been reduced from 20 to 16 minutes.
I spent some time between
seasons making significant changes to my rankings Excel file. Preparing all 23
rounds now seems a bit like a waste of time, at least for this season. On the
other hand, my changes to the file made it much easier to adjust my rankings
for the shorter quarters.
I’ve adjusted down all 2019
margins and home ground advantages to 80 per cent of their previous values, to
reflect the shorter quarters this year (though
there are arguments to adjust the home ground advantage down further). This
did not affect the order of teams, before Round 1.
Anything
interesting happen in the actual matches?
Collingwood had a good win
over the Western Bulldogs in Round 1, by 52 points. That moves the Magpies up
from seventh to second in the rankings, and the Bulldogs down from fifth to
eighth. After Richmond at the top it’s all pretty close, so teams may move up
or down several spots each week over the first few rounds.
The
tips
Here are my predictions for
the next round of AFL matches. I have adjusted my probability distribution for
the shorter quarters as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment