Collingwood
and Richmond fight each other to a stalemate
After a three-month hiatus due
to the COVID-19 pandemic, the AFL 2020 season resumed last Thursday night with
a ‘blockbuster clash’ between Melbourne’s two current heavyweight clubs,
Collingwood and Richmond.
The match was as close as many
were hoping for, with the teams playing in their first draw since 1917. The
scoring on the other hand was probably not what many were hoping for, with the
two teams combining for just 72 points – the lowest combined game score since
1999.
Quarter lengths have been
reduced this year from 20 minutes to 16 minutes each (plus time-on), and
therefore scores are expected to be lower. And each team did have about 80 per
cent of the disposals that they had on average last year (see table below). Yet
they only had about 50 per cent of the scoring shots. What happened?
For many viewers, the enduring
memory of the game’s second half is probably of Richmond booting the ball into
their forward line, being spoiled by the Collingwood defenders, and then the
Magpies chipping the ball back only to be repelled by a wall of Tiger tacklers,
who then pick up the ball and boot it forward … with the the whole cycle
repeating again.
Each team had about as many
turnovers as they had on average last season in longer game time (see table
above). After accounting for game time Richmond had a lower ratio compared with
last season of effective disposals, handballing less and kicking more.
Collingwood had a higher ratio of one percenters (spoils, smothers, etc.), led
by backmen Darcy Moore and Jeremy Howe with nine and eight respectively. Richmond
had a much higher ratio of tackles, with ruckman Ivan Soldo recording nine(!),
and midfielder/mid-forwards Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia, Shane Edwards, and
Shai Bolton recording five or more each.
It was the football equivalent
of putting a pox on each other’s house. Which, given
Collingwood and Richmond’s history with each other, and
the horrible standstill the world has been brought to this year, was perhaps a
weirdly appropriate result.
Are
Port Adelaide that good? Are Adelaide that ‘bad’?
For the first time, some fans
were allowed to attend an AFL (men’s) match this season, as about 2,000 people
watched Port Adelaide take on Adelaide before both teams head off to the
Queensland ‘hub’ for a few weeks. Fortunately most of those were Port Adelaide
fans, as the Power smashed the Crows by 75 points, giving them two wins so far
by a combined total of 122 points.
Is Port Adelaide a ‘top four
side’? Or is it just that Adelaide is a ‘bottom four side’? Perhaps both. When
this blog checked in on both teams before last season’s first Showdown the two
sides were fairly even, and about average. By the
end of the season, Port Adelaide was still rated about average,
but Adelaide had fallen away somewhat. This season, that disparity has become
even bigger.
Port Adelaide’s past six
matches have been overall fairly impressive, with an average net margin
adjusted for opponent strength and home ground advantage, and adjusted to 16
minute quarters, of 24 points (see chart below). Apart from their two big wins
this season the Power finished last season with comfortable wins against
Essendon, Sydney, and Fremantle, with a big loss against North Melbourne their
only blemish. None of those teams they beat are probably among the top sides,
but Port is getting the job done well.
In contrast, Adelaide’s
average adjusted net margin over their past eight matches is -24 points (see
chart below). After their massive win against Gold Coast last season, the Crows
lost to Essendon and Carlton, and got well beaten by Collingwood at home. Their
best performance over that period was a close loss to West Coast in Perth. Only
the Gold Coast Suns – who actually had quite a good win on the weekend – have
fared worse in that time.
As it was last season, Port
Adelaide’s performance is still being powered by their work in the midfield, as
they rank first in disposals and inside 50s and second in clearances. The Crows
meanwhile rank at or near the bottom in those categories, despite having Rory Sloane
and the Crouch brothers. The problem for the Crows is that after their three primary
midfielders the cupboard is fairly bare. Meanwhile Port’s Travis Boak had
plenty of support from his midfielder-forwards, most notably second-year player
Connor Rozee who had eight clearances, five inside 50s, and six tackles. Other
young players like Xavier Duursma and Zak Butters were not half-bad either, and
veteran Steven Motlop had one of his finest games since moving to the club.
Port Adelaide now sits
fifth on the rankings. Adelaide sits fourth-last. On the evidence of the
weekend and other recent matches, that seems a fair reflection of where both
teams are currently at.
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