AFL Rankings: Round 3 2020

The GWS GIANTS may not be the attacking machine they are perceived to be.

In 2019, the Greater Western Sydney Giants famously made their first grand final, after three excellent wins in the finals series. While they ran out of petrol for the big one and were thrashed, they were still considered one of the leading premiership contenders ahead of this season. They had star players Stephen Coniglio and Callan Ward to return to a side that had just finished second.

On the rankings though they finished the season in ninth, rated about average. After consecutive losses to North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs they are now ranked eleventh. Including last year’s Grand Final they have scored less than six goals in three out of their past ten matches.

Over the past 22 matches, GWS’ best stretch of form was those first few weeks of the finals, when they thrashed the Dogs, and beat Brisbane and Collingwood on the road (see chart below). Outside of that they’ve been average overall.

Despite player departures over the years, they still seem to have heaps of talent. But perhaps it is not quite as much as often thought.

The Giants get the ball a lot, but it is also about where and how you use it

When heading into the season Champion Data rated GWS’ midfield as only the twelfth-best in the AFL, the queue to ridicule Champion Data was almost as big as western Sydney itself. Ruckmen aside, on paper the Giants seemed to have the deepest collection of talent in the land rotating through the midfield: Coniglio and Ward, Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto, and Jacob Hopper, with Zac Williams and Toby Greene being able to push in and star as required.

Without going so far as to say Champion Data were ‘right’, there are a few things that place doubt on whether GWS’ engine room is as powerful as commonly thought. First, as Champion Data’s ratings capture, while Williams and Greene are excellent players and can play in the midfield usually they do not (Williams plays back, Greene forward). Whitfield also spends a lot of time starting centre bounces up forward and moving into defence.

Part of why GWS’ on-ballers are considered to be so strong is that they get a lot of possessions. GWS were second for disposal per game differential in 2019, close behind Collingwood (see table below). They were second in differential for contested possessions and clearances, and first for uncontested possessions. (They rank near the bottom in these categories so far this year.)

However, GWS ranked only sixth for scoring shot differential, and eleventh for inside 50 differential. The Giants may get a lot of the ball, but they don’t seem to get it down forward into dangerous attacking spots as often as a good team should.

Further, if we look at the Giants’ main ball-winners, a more significant amount of their work than other top teams is done in the defensive half of the ground. GWS’ top 10 disposal-getters averaged 3.14 inside 50s per game (per player) last year, but 2.91 rebound 50s (see table below). Other teams that Champion Data rated as having top midfields only averaged 2.36 rebound 50s among their top 10 disposal-getters. (North Melbourne’s midfield was also rated highly, but this was less of a ‘consensus’ pick among other experts, and is helped by having an elite ruck in Todd Goldstein.)

Included here would be defenders Heath Shaw and Nick Haynes, but again wingmen/half-backs Williams and Whitfield picked up a lot of their possessions away from their own goal. It does help them to defend very well, including in last year’s preliminary final, but it is a bit different to the attacking machine GWS may be perceived as.

Another reason why Champion Data rated their midfield so low is that some of their players were not exactly the best users of the ball last season. Tim Taranto (currently injured) led the league in clangers last year with almost five per game, and Hopper, Shaw, and Greene averaged about three to four per game each. Given that Taranto and Hopper are two players that spent most of their time in the ‘guts’, the perception of GWS’ midfield strength may still be somewhat ahead of their young players’ development.

As last year’s finals series showed the Giants can still be very good. But we should perhaps not be that surprised if they cannot make it back to the Grand Final this season.

P.S. Essendon and Melbourne, who had their match postponed this week after the Bombers’ Conor McKenna tested positive for COVID-19, are treated as having a bye for the purpose of the rankings. Their ranking points can still change slightly as their past results are re-assessed based on how other teams have performed this week – e.g. Melbourne’s win against Carlton is rated as slightly better given the Blues’ win this week against Geelong.