AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Finals 2020

How quickly things have changed since last week. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the AFLW season quickly went from the home and away season to the finals… which ended after one week with the season cancelled and no premier at all.

It was a sad end to what was shaping as an interesting finals series. The Kangaroos finish as the top-rated team on these rankings, however they barely squeaked by Collingwood in their semi‑final, and other results suggested that other teams were closing in. Fremantle had been undefeated all season, but hadn’t really put in a dominating performance until they thrashed the Gold Coast Suns by 70 points on the weekend. (This gave a boost to the ranking points of teams that have recently played the Dockers.) Carlton also had a comfortable win, while Melbourne has been a quality side for much of the season.

Hopefully the competition will have a more satisfying resolution next year, although a lot about the AFL is currently uncertain. That’s it for now, and I’ll return with the men’s rankings when it looks like the next round of matches is about to get underway.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 6 2020

Of the four new AFLW teams in 2020, St. Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns have generally been competitive, and the West Coast Eagles and Richmond have not. Why?

On the weekend the AFLW’s four new teams played each other, and the results were not close. St. Kilda defeated Richmond by 39 points, holding the Tigers to just three points – the first goalless final score in AFLW. Meanwhile the Gold Coast Suns easily accounted for the West Coast Eagles by 25 points, with the Eagles scoring only one goal.

Both St. Kilda and Gold Coast have been reasonably competitive in their first season. The Suns remarkably are (just) still in the race for a finals spot in Conference A, with two wins and a draw and a percentage above 100. The Saints are out of the finals race in the tougher Conference B, but also have two wins and a percentage of 90 against generally strong opposition.

West Coast and Richmond on the other hand have easily been the two bottom teams this season. The Eagles have one win and the Tigers none, and both have a percentage below 40.

Why the difference?

Richmond are young and inexperienced

Richmond were one of the more favoured teams with the bookmakers going into the 2020 AFLW season, but in hindsight this may been wishful thinking. The Tigers were the youngest and most inexperienced team, with an average age of 23 years and barely over 100 games of experience. Thirteen of their players came from the 2019 draft. (Thank you to ‘AFLW Prospectus’ for age and experience figures – these would be a pain to compile myself!).

In addition, some of the players they did sign are probably not as productive as their reputations suggest. Monique Conti won the Bulldogs’ best and fairest in 2019, and has been a star again for the Tigers. Forwards Katie Brennan, Sabrina Frederick, and Christina Bernardi had question marks though. Brennan had played just 13 games in three seasons, and has missed games again this season. Frederick and Bernardi were inaccurate last season (Frederick kicked just one goal), and they have kicked 6.13 between them this season.

The AFLW has shown how young players can develop over time, with players that were teenagers when the competition began emerging as stars in their early twenties. The Tigers may have to wait a few years until those draft picks develop before emerging as a force in the women’s league.

West Coast does not have that ‘excuse’

The Eagles however were the fourth oldest team entering the season, with more experience than any other new side. Nine of their players were 28 years or older, compared to four of the Tigers.

However, of those experienced players probably only Dana Hooker and Emma Swanson have lived up to (or exceeded) expectations. Only one player – debutant Hayley Bullas – has kicked more than one goal for the season, while more experienced goalkickers such as Ashlee Atkins and Kellie Gibson have barely hit the scoreboard. On the positive side some young players have shown promise such as Bullas, first draft pick Imahra Cameron, and Mikayla Bowen.

Gold Coast are young too, but have mature stars

The Suns are relatively young as well, with the third-youngest list heading into the season. However some of their ‘older’ players have been very good this year. Lauren Ahrens, Hannah Dunn, and Kate Surman have each averaged over 12 disposals per game and are all 28 years old. Star player Jamie Stanton is younger at 24 years old, but had three prior seasons under her belt. Still there are some young stars for the future as well, such as 19 year old Jacqui Yorston who is averaging 13 disposals for the second straight season.

St. Kilda: the brightest future of all

None of the new teams though has a young core like St. Kilda, with 18 year old Georgia Patrikios and 20 year olds Olivia Vesely and Caitlin Greiser. Patrikios and Vesely have averaged over 15 disposals and six contested possessions per game. Greiser is the competition’s leading goalkicker, with ten goals including the match-winning goal against Melbourne. The Saints were the sixth-oldest team heading into the season, but many of their top players should be around for several years to come.

Perhaps this should not have been a surprise. The Southern Saints were very good in the VFLW last season. In hindsight, there was more evidence that they were better equipped for the AFLW than the Tigers were. They won’t make the finals, but the Saints should be pretty pleased with how their first season in the AFLW has panned out.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 5 2020

This week: why the Kangaroos are the highest rated team on the rankings, and why the undefeated Dockers are not.

If Carlton’s win against the reigning premiers the Adelaide Crows last week was impressive, then the Kangaroos’ win this week was even better: a 42 point win which may have somewhat atoned for the big loss the Crows handed out to them last year. Four players – Emma Kearney, Jenna Bruton, Jasmine Garner, and Ash Riddell – had 24 disposals or more, as the Roos dominated Adelaide in almost every aspect.

The Kangaroos have now replaced the Blues on top of the rankings. Since their two point loss in the first round to Melbourne, they have won their past four games by an average of over five goals. They have scored the most points for the season, and only Melbourne has conceded less points. The bookmakers have the Roos as favourites for the premiership, along with the other conference leader Fremantle.

That seems fair enough, as the Dockers have yet to lose a game this season. But hang on – the rankings currently have Fremantle down in sixth, near Collingwood and Brisbane who have each won only three out of five games. Why are the rankings treating the Dockers with so little ‘respect’?

The Kangaroos’ four wins have all been by more than two goals (see table below). In contrast, three of Fremantle’s wins have been by eight points or less, and it could easily have lost one or two of those matches. The Dockers’ only win by more than three goals was against new team West Coast. The closeness of their matches is not due to a particularly tough fixture either – their opponents so far are rated, on average, as easier than the Roos.

Of course, if Fremantle remains undefeated it will have home ground advantage for the finals. This will be challenging though – the Dockers have fellow premiership aspirants Carlton and Melbourne in their final two home-and-away games. The Kangaroos have Brisbane away in the final round, but on current form they would be favoured in that match-up. The risk for the Roos is that if they lose that match they may well finish below the Lions in Conference A. For the Dockers at least, their two nearest Conference B rivals – Carlton and Melbourne – still have to play each other.

All that said, you would still be feeling reasonably good about the Dockers’ premiership chances if you were a supporter. But it’s the Roos that look to me like the team that you would least want to play at season’s end.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 4 2020

The Adelaide Crows’ loss to Carlton highlights that they are no longer the clear team to beat.

About a year ago the Adelaide Crows capped a dominating season by beating Carlton in the Grand Final at the Adelaide Oval by 45 points. This meant that they had won their final eight matches by an average of almost seven goals. In the same match however two-time league most valuable player Erin Phillips injured her ACL.

As a result Phillips missed the first three matches of the 2020 season, and combined with the absence of co-captain Chelsea Randall, it seemed to significantly affect the Crows’ results. They lost their first match to Brisbane, and took three quarters to shake off new team St. Kilda, putting them amongst the pack as the season neared its halfway mark.

Happily, Erin Phillips returned for this round’s match against Carlton. Unhappily for the Crows, she was only one of three Crows (along with fellow All-Australians Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marinoff) to record double figures in disposals as the Blues recorded an eight-point win. Meanwhile a whopping 16 Carlton players got ten or more disposals, as the Blues dominated possession over the Crows, picking up 92 more disposals overall.

Carlton built a ‘wall’ in its defensive midfield and backline, and worked its way up the field with 49 more marks and 71 more uncontested possessions than the Crows. Kerryn Harrington led the Blues on their intercepting ways with 13 marks. Up forward, Tayla Harris was the star with seven marks and five scoring shots. If it wasn’t for the importance of last year’s Preliminary Final, this would have been the Blues’ finest ever AFLW win.

As a result Adelaide has lost the massive lead it held at the start of the season at the top of the rankings, overtaken by Carlton with next week’s opponent the Kangaroos close behind. This year, based on their net margins adjusted for opponent strength and home ground advantage, the Crows have been merely average (see table below). Carlton meanwhile has the best adjusted net margin of any side.

At the start of the season the Crows were huge favourites to win every match they played in. Next week the rankings put them as slight underdogs against the Kangaroos (see below). With two wins out of four matches the Crows have their work cut out for them to earn a home final this season.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 3 2020

This week: the Kangaroos record one of the biggest AFLW wins ever, St. Kilda records its first AFLW win ever, and Collingwood somehow does not win despite recording almost 100 more disposals than its opponents.

The Kangaroos have a thumping good win

The Kangaroos jump to a clear second on the rankings, after beating Richmond by 56 points on the weekend. It was the fourth largest winning margin in AFLW history, behind the Bulldogs’ 73 point win against Carlton in 2018, and the twin beltings Adelaide handed out to Melbourne and Geelong in consecutive weeks last season. One may note that both those teams went on to win the premiership.

The margin would not have been so severe if the Tigers had converted their shots at goal at an average rate, but the Kangaroos still dominated the match with 63 more disposals. They were excellent at finding loose players (or conversely, the Tigers were poor at covering their opponents), with 45 more uncontested possessions than Richmond, and almost double the amount of marks. Ashleigh Riddell and Jasmine Garner continued their great form – Riddell is averaging 20 disposals for the year, up from 13 per game last season, while Garner is averaging 18 disposals per game, also up from 13 last year.

At the same stage last season the Kangaroos were red-hot favourites for the flag. Big losses to Adelaide and Fremantle – along with the AFLW’s conference system – ultimately ended their season. Each round this year seems to throw up a new premiership favourite (and the Roos aren’t quite the bookmakers’ favourite), but the Kangaroos in 2020 look like they are still one of the competition’s strongest sides.

Don’t sleep on Collingwood, despite their loss in the west

Collingwood, along with Brisbane, is one of the most improved teams in the AFLW this season. The Magpies easily beat West Coast and Carlton, and lost by just three points to league leaders Fremantle on the weekend. Scoreboard aside though Collingwood statistically dominated this game, with 93 more disposals, 13 more inside 50s, and 19 tackles in their forward 50. Hayley Miller was Fremantle’s leading disposal-getter with 13; six Magpies had more than that, including Jaimee Lambert with 32 disposals.

The Dockers again won the game through their general pressure, with 75 tackles to 58, and gaining more territory than the Magpies with each disposal. Fremantle had 2.8 kicks to every handball, compared to 1.2 for Collingwood. Throw in a better conversion rate in front of goal, and the Dockers were able to squeak home.

But this was still an encouraging result for the Magpies on enemy turf. It could end up being a dogfight with Carlton and Melbourne (or even the Dockers themselves, if they slip) for the second and third Conference B finals spots. Next week’s match against the Demons at Marvel Stadium, before the men’s fundraiser game for the bushfires, looms as an important one for the make-up of the finals series.

Congratulations to the Saints

St. Kilda won its first ever AFLW match, against Melbourne, on the back of a booming fourth-quarter goal from Caitlin Greiser. Melbourne’s inaccuracy in front of goal (1.8) probably helped get the Saints over the line, but that shouldn’t take away from the joy of St. Kilda’s historic win, coming after a near miss against reigning premiers Adelaide. Next week they face off against the Dockers, for which the rankings consider them an almost even chance, and how many people would have thought that at the start of the season?

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 2 2020

Western Derby: Bowers gets her hooks into Dana

Watching the first AFLW match between West Coast and Fremantle, played in front of over 35,000 fans, there seemed to be a feeling of payback in the Dockers’ 45 point win over their new cross-town rivals. Seven former Dockers lined up for the Eagles, including former fairest and best winner Dana Hooker. Fremantle laid a massive 78 tackles on West Coast, and Roxy Roux’s celebration after slotting through a goal seemed to sum up the joy they got in showing they are the premier team in the west.

Eighteen of those tackles were from Kiara Bowers, who comfortably led the league in tackles and pressure points last season, and was runner-up in the Most Valuable Player award. Bowers kept Hooker quiet early, and while Hooker ended up with the same number of disposals as Bowers (13) for the match, the Dockers had well and truly skipped ahead by the time she started finding the ball. Katie-Jayne Grieve had 11 tackles as well (and two goals), a big step up from the 2.4 tackles per game she averaged last year.

The Dockers in general have built their game on pressure, and kicking the ball long. Freo recorded only four more disposals than West Coast in the match, but had 16 more kicks, and 30 to 19 inside 50s. Carlton surprised them in the finals last year, but the Dockers are looking like they will again be among the contenders to make it to the final week this season.

The Demons also play like a contender

There was a happier result for a player against her old club this week, as Libby Birch and her new team Melbourne beat comfortably beat their original rivals the Western Bulldogs. The Dogs seemed to enjoy getting stuck into Birch even more than the Dockers got into their ex-teammates. With Birch in the side the Demons’ defence has been much stronger so far this year, conceding just two scoring shots on the weekend, and only five against the Kangaroos last week (ranking them #1 overall – see chart below).

In contrast to the Roos though, the Bulldogs could barely get it forward in the first place, with Melbourne playing much of the game in their forward half. Their personnel in that half of the ground has always been strong, but this year so far it seems to be even a touch better. Karen Paxman, Elise O’Dea and returning captain Daisy Pearce have always been major ball winners, but improvement has come from Shelley Scott, who is averaging five more disposals per game, and Maddison Gay, who is averaging over five tackles.

And the Demons still have All-Australian ruckman Lauren Pearce to return. Demon and Docker fans might be starting to dream that their women’s teams could finally snag the premiership that has eluded their clubs for so long.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 1 2020

In the first week of the 2020 AFLW season: the ‘old’ teams establish a gap between them and the ‘new’ sides, the gap to the Crows closes, and some contenders come away with important wins.

Welcome to the AFLW…

Four teams had the joy of playing their first-ever match in the AFLW on the weekend, but three of them at least showed they may still have a ways to go to match it with the established sides.

In the opening match of the season, Richmond conceded the first five goals against Carlton before eventually going down by 34 points. The Blues played a large part of the game in possession of the ball in their forward half, having 74 (about 50 per cent) more disposals than the Tigers, over twice as many (27 to 12) clearances, and four times as many (44 to 11) inside 50s. If not for inaccuracy in front of goal, this could have been a huge win for Carlton. Perhaps some hope for Richmond lies in the fact that the Blues themselves suffered a big loss in their opening match last season, before fighting back all the way to the Grand Final.

West Coast went down by 27 points against Collingwood, with 47 less disposals than the Magpies. Meanwhile St. Kilda lost by 25 points to the Western Bulldogs, with 36 less disposals. In those two matches, the big differences were in the number of uncontested possessions and disposal efficiency, indicating that the more established teams are currently cleaner in their ball use. The other new side Gold Coast also had this issue, but the weather perhaps kept the Giants from taking full advantage. Only four players each for Richmond, West Coast, and Gold Coast recorded double figures for disposals, and most of them were those that had played AFLW before.

For all of the handwringing about the new teams ‘poaching’ players from the league’s foundation clubs, they may be a year or two away from providing stern competition yet.

The Crows lose first up, but some good signs are still there

So much for being a near certainty to win… the Adelaide Crows lost their very first match of the season to the Brisbane Lions, and were never even close to winning. I went through last week why the Crows probably were not as strong as the rankings thought, but it was still a substantial upset. Without injured co-captains Erin Phillips and Chelsea Randall, do the Crows look to be in trouble?

Yes and no. Adelaide had 33 more disposals than the Lions – including an astonishing 35 disposals from Anne Hatchard – and 12 more inside 50s. Those types of numbers should win a team more games than they lose. But of some concern is that the Crows did not convert well from inside 50, or defend well when Brisbane got the ball forward. Without their best goalkicker (Phillips) and best intercept defender (Randall), there is some reason to think that could continue to be a problem this year. Still, they should have enough to again be contending at year’s end. (And the rankings have them as ‘near certainties’ to win again next week.)

Early wins are important come season’s end

With only eight matches in the season, every win in AFLW is like gold, and the finals picture can change substantially from week to week. Unlucky in past seasons, Melbourne scored a crucial two-point win against the Kangaroos, on the back of two goals from Kate Hore. The Demons’ likely rivals Carlton and Fremantle also won, but this year there is room for all three teams to make the finals. On the other hand, Conference B looks to be shaping up as the stronger conference, with the Magpies and Bulldogs also winning.

Brisbane is now considered the likeliest third Conference A finalist behind Adelaide and the Kangaroos, replacing Richmond. As great as their first performance was though, it is questionable whether the young Lions can keep up that level of performance, potentially making the third Conference A position the spot where another new finalist can slip through.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Preview 2020

The AFL Women’s competition is back in 2020 for its fourth season, and so are my team rankings. In this preview post: ranking the four new teams, the effects of the uneven fixture, and which teams the rankings think are most likely to make the finals.

Ranking the new teams

The 2020 AFLW season will be the first for four teams: Gold Coast, Richmond, St. Kilda, and West Coast. Their entry has led to another bout of player movement between clubs, including former Bulldogs captain Katie Brennan becoming the first captain for the Tigers, and Dana Hooker moving from Fremantle to cross-town rivals West Coast. How do we rank these new entrants, and how does this affect the rankings of the ten existing teams?

Well, over the past few years everyone has had quite a bit of experience trying to figure out how new AFLW teams may go, including the original eight teams in the league’s inaugural season. My approach has been to use the bookmakers’ odds to set the initial rankings (though I’ve varied slightly each time in the exact way I’ve used them).

This approach has a few minor issues: the bookmakers’ odds may also take into account the difficulty of each team’s fixture – more on that below – which I haven’t tried to separate out. I also ended up excluding the Adelaide Crows from my regression, as last year they were such a massive outlier (more on that below as well).

Unsurprisingly three of the new teams are at long odds for the premiership, with Gold Coast’s odds being the longest. The exception is Richmond. This could in part be due to bullish Tiger bettors still basking in the glow of last season’s men’s premiership. Richmond has stacked its team with big-name forwards, and the AFLW has so far been a competition dominated more by midfielders. However, rival AFLW players also believe the Tigers to be the most likely new side to succeed, and a 30 point win against the Eagles in a practice match doesn’t hurt this view.

I’ve put the Tigers in among the group of teams underneath Adelaide, with Carlton, Fremantle, the Kangaroos, and Melbourne (see below). The other new teams I’ve put down with Collingwood, Geelong – one of the ‘luckiest’ finals sides there ever was, helped by the AFLW’s conference system – and the Brisbane Lions.

Note: Apart from changing the rankings to incorporate the new teams, I’ve also changed the Kangaroos’ home ground ‘disadvantage’ when playing away in Melbourne, and applied this retrospectively. With the Roos seeming more now like a part-Melbourne based team, I’ve done away with the disadvantage entirely, similar to Geelong in the men’s competition (although not the Cats’ women’s team).

Which club has the easiest fixture?

Many complaints are made about the unevenness of the AFL men’s fixture, but its effect pales against that of the fixture in the women’s league. Unlike the men’s league, AFLW has more teams than rounds. The league’s administration may have, in theory, made the conferences more even this year than last year. However, the addition of four new teams, taking the total up to fourteen, means that each club will not play five other teams at all.

As things sit now, the team that looks like it will benefit the most from this inequity in the fixture is the Fremantle Dockers (see table below). Of last year’s top teams the Dockers do not play Adelaide, the Kangaroos, and of course themselves. In addition, one of their ‘away’ games is against the Eagles in Perth.

Fremantle gains an estimated goal per game from the ease of their fixture, or one more expected win. In a season of eight rounds, that could come in handy when fighting for one of the six finals spots. Another finals aspirant Melbourne also avoids playing Adelaide, while Carlton and Richmond are among the eight teams that have to face the league’s powerhouse.

At the other end, St. Kilda gets a baptism of fire, playing every highly ranked side other than the Kangaroos. The Saints also receive only one ‘home’ game against a non-Victorian club, while they have to travel interstate twice. Of course, these fixture assessments could look very different once the finals actually approach.

ACL (Adelaide Crows ligaments) injuries even up the league

The 2019 AFLW premiers the Adelaide Crows may have been the most dominant team – men’s or women’s – in the history of the AFL. After tripping up in their opening match against the Bulldogs, the Crows got better and better, winning their matches by an average of 40 points, and their final three matches by an average of nearly ten goals.

In contrast, last year’s men premiers Richmond finished with a ranking of about five goals. The virtually all-conquering 2000 Essendon team won their matches by an average of over 50 points, but the average winning margin in the men’s league is around 30 to 40 points. In the AFLW last year it was just over 20 points, and that is with Adelaide’s thrashings propping it up.

Therefore, as we stand at the start of the season the Crows are estimated have close to a 100 per cent chance of winning each home and away match, and about a 90 per cent chance of winning all eight of them. The bookmakers don’t have Adelaide as being anywhere near that strong. What the bookmakers know that the rankings do not is that the Crows have lost both of their co-captains Chelsea Randall and Erin Phillips to ACL injuries – Randall for the whole season, and Phillips potentially so. Even aside from those injuries, one may expect Adelaide to regress a little. It is still a strong team however, led by All-Australians Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard.

Player movement in the AFLW has made predictions from past performances fraught so far, but the rankings like six teams in particular to make this year’s finals. Adelaide, the Kangaroos, and Richmond (the Tigers based almost entirely on bookmakers’ odds) are considered the strongest teams in Conference A, while Fremantle, Carlton, and Melbourne are the favourites to emerge from Conference B. Gold Coast and St. Kilda are considered the most likely to be at the bottom of their respective conferences, with the Saints’ tough fixture hurting them.

I’ll be back each week with more AFLW rankings goodness, hopefully with statistics from the AFL website up and running again to support my number-crunching. In the meantime, here are the rankings’ predictions for the first round of matches. (Brisbane’s estimated probability of winning against Adelaide is actually 0.2 per cent, but for the reasons above, is likely somewhat underestimated.)