AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 4 2020

The Adelaide Crows’ loss to Carlton highlights that they are no longer the clear team to beat.

About a year ago the Adelaide Crows capped a dominating season by beating Carlton in the Grand Final at the Adelaide Oval by 45 points. This meant that they had won their final eight matches by an average of almost seven goals. In the same match however two-time league most valuable player Erin Phillips injured her ACL.

As a result Phillips missed the first three matches of the 2020 season, and combined with the absence of co-captain Chelsea Randall, it seemed to significantly affect the Crows’ results. They lost their first match to Brisbane, and took three quarters to shake off new team St. Kilda, putting them amongst the pack as the season neared its halfway mark.

Happily, Erin Phillips returned for this round’s match against Carlton. Unhappily for the Crows, she was only one of three Crows (along with fellow All-Australians Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marinoff) to record double figures in disposals as the Blues recorded an eight-point win. Meanwhile a whopping 16 Carlton players got ten or more disposals, as the Blues dominated possession over the Crows, picking up 92 more disposals overall.

Carlton built a ‘wall’ in its defensive midfield and backline, and worked its way up the field with 49 more marks and 71 more uncontested possessions than the Crows. Kerryn Harrington led the Blues on their intercepting ways with 13 marks. Up forward, Tayla Harris was the star with seven marks and five scoring shots. If it wasn’t for the importance of last year’s Preliminary Final, this would have been the Blues’ finest ever AFLW win.

As a result Adelaide has lost the massive lead it held at the start of the season at the top of the rankings, overtaken by Carlton with next week’s opponent the Kangaroos close behind. This year, based on their net margins adjusted for opponent strength and home ground advantage, the Crows have been merely average (see table below). Carlton meanwhile has the best adjusted net margin of any side.

At the start of the season the Crows were huge favourites to win every match they played in. Next week the rankings put them as slight underdogs against the Kangaroos (see below). With two wins out of four matches the Crows have their work cut out for them to earn a home final this season.