In
the first week of the 2020 AFLW season: the ‘old’ teams establish a gap between
them and the ‘new’ sides, the gap to the Crows closes, and some contenders come
away with important wins.
Welcome
to the AFLW…
Four teams had the joy of
playing their first-ever match in the AFLW on the weekend, but three of them at
least showed they may still have a ways to go to match it with the established
sides.
In the opening match of the
season, Richmond conceded the first five goals against Carlton before
eventually going down by 34 points. The Blues played a large part of the game in
possession of the ball in their forward half, having 74 (about
50 per cent) more disposals than the Tigers, over twice as many (27 to 12) clearances,
and four times as many (44 to 11) inside 50s. If not for inaccuracy in front of
goal, this could have been a huge win for Carlton. Perhaps some hope for
Richmond lies in the fact that the
Blues themselves suffered a big loss in their opening match last season,
before fighting back all the way to the Grand Final.
West Coast
went down by 27 points against Collingwood, with 47 less disposals than the
Magpies. Meanwhile St. Kilda
lost by 25 points to the Western Bulldogs, with 36 less disposals. In those
two matches, the big differences were in the number of uncontested possessions
and disposal efficiency, indicating that the more established teams are
currently cleaner in their ball use. The other new side Gold Coast also had
this issue, but the weather perhaps kept the Giants from taking full
advantage. Only four players each for Richmond, West Coast, and Gold Coast
recorded double figures for disposals, and most of them were those that had
played AFLW before.
For all of the handwringing about
the new teams ‘poaching’ players from the league’s foundation clubs, they may
be a year or two away from providing stern competition yet.
The
Crows lose first up, but some good signs are still there
So much for being
a near certainty to win… the Adelaide Crows lost their very first match of
the season to the Brisbane Lions, and were never even close to winning. I went
through last week why the Crows probably were not as strong as the rankings
thought, but it was still a substantial upset. Without injured co-captains Erin
Phillips and Chelsea Randall, do the Crows look to be in trouble?
Yes and no. Adelaide
had 33 more disposals than the Lions – including an astonishing 35
disposals from Anne Hatchard – and 12 more inside 50s. Those types of numbers
should win a team more games than they lose. But of some concern is that the
Crows did not convert well from inside 50, or defend well when Brisbane got the
ball forward. Without their best goalkicker (Phillips) and best intercept defender
(Randall), there is some reason to think that could continue to be a problem
this year. Still, they should have enough to again be contending at year’s end.
(And the rankings have them as ‘near certainties’ to win again next week.)
Early
wins are important come season’s end
With only eight matches in the
season, every win in AFLW is like gold, and the finals picture can change
substantially from week to week. Unlucky in past seasons, Melbourne scored a
crucial two-point win against the Kangaroos, on the back of two goals from Kate
Hore. The Demons’ likely rivals Carlton and Fremantle also won, but this year
there is room for all three teams to make the finals. On the other hand, Conference
B looks to be shaping up as the stronger conference, with the Magpies and
Bulldogs also winning.
Brisbane is now considered the
likeliest third Conference A finalist behind Adelaide and the Kangaroos,
replacing Richmond. As great as their first performance was though, it is questionable
whether the young Lions can keep up that level of performance, potentially
making the third Conference A position the spot where another new finalist can
slip through.
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