AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 5 2020

This week: why the Kangaroos are the highest rated team on the rankings, and why the undefeated Dockers are not.

If Carlton’s win against the reigning premiers the Adelaide Crows last week was impressive, then the Kangaroos’ win this week was even better: a 42 point win which may have somewhat atoned for the big loss the Crows handed out to them last year. Four players – Emma Kearney, Jenna Bruton, Jasmine Garner, and Ash Riddell – had 24 disposals or more, as the Roos dominated Adelaide in almost every aspect.

The Kangaroos have now replaced the Blues on top of the rankings. Since their two point loss in the first round to Melbourne, they have won their past four games by an average of over five goals. They have scored the most points for the season, and only Melbourne has conceded less points. The bookmakers have the Roos as favourites for the premiership, along with the other conference leader Fremantle.

That seems fair enough, as the Dockers have yet to lose a game this season. But hang on – the rankings currently have Fremantle down in sixth, near Collingwood and Brisbane who have each won only three out of five games. Why are the rankings treating the Dockers with so little ‘respect’?

The Kangaroos’ four wins have all been by more than two goals (see table below). In contrast, three of Fremantle’s wins have been by eight points or less, and it could easily have lost one or two of those matches. The Dockers’ only win by more than three goals was against new team West Coast. The closeness of their matches is not due to a particularly tough fixture either – their opponents so far are rated, on average, as easier than the Roos.

Of course, if Fremantle remains undefeated it will have home ground advantage for the finals. This will be challenging though – the Dockers have fellow premiership aspirants Carlton and Melbourne in their final two home-and-away games. The Kangaroos have Brisbane away in the final round, but on current form they would be favoured in that match-up. The risk for the Roos is that if they lose that match they may well finish below the Lions in Conference A. For the Dockers at least, their two nearest Conference B rivals – Carlton and Melbourne – still have to play each other.

All that said, you would still be feeling reasonably good about the Dockers’ premiership chances if you were a supporter. But it’s the Roos that look to me like the team that you would least want to play at season’s end.