Monday, March 18, 2024

AFL Rankings: Round 1 2024


For the first time ever, the two teams in the previous year’s Grand Final – Collingwood and Brisbane – have started the season with two losses. Weaknesses have been scrutinized, long bows are being drawn, but how bad is it really for last year’s top two teams?

First off, Brisbane were only two points away from winning their first match against Carlton – granted, giving up a 46 point lead isn’t encouraging, but they were moments away from currently being 1-1. Even then, Carlton’s accuracy is front of goal (13.8) helped them get over the line. Similarly, Collingwood were subject to exceptionally good accuracy in front of goal from their first-up opponent GWS (18.6).

Their second matches (in Round 1, naturally) were more concerning. Collingwood lost by five goals to Sydney, and didn’t look much like winning after the first quarter. Brisbane too fell away after the first quarter to lose by four goals to Fremantle.

Brisbane’s main concern so far has been converting forward entries into scores. They have had 21 more inside 50s than their opponents across their two games so far, but have had only two more scoring shots, and they rank fourth-last for scoring shots per inside 50. Two-time All-Australian forward Charlie Cameron has had a rough start to the year, with only 3.5 uncontested possessions per game (career average 6.5), and 45 per cent disposal efficiency (career average 63.7) – figures you would be almost sure he will improve upon.

Collingwood have been fairly even with their opponents across the board, except for one percenters – and obviously goals. Given the two teams they have faced – GWS and Sydney – may be the two most in-form teams at the moment, that could be viewed as slightly encouraging. In their premiership season too however, they were never really streets ahead of their opposition, with at most modest positive differentials in the main statistical categories, except notably accuracy in front of goal. Their performances so far may just indicate they were only a small step away from falling back into the pack.

That fine line extends now to the Lions’ and Magpies’ finals hopes. With the top half of teams closely bunched in terms of expected performance, a couple of losses now puts them in significantly more jeopardy of missing out. Conversely though, that also means it will only take a few wins to significantly improve their chances again. Grand Finals are obviously where everyone wants to end up, but they can exaggerate the gaps between teams – Collingwood and Brisbane were less the two dominant forces of last year than they were among a bunch of solid contenders that could have, without much surprise, made it through to the final week.

Sunday, March 10, 2024

AFL Rankings: Opening Round 2024




For the rankings this year, I have made some slight adjustments to the home ground advantages. To come up with the new values, I had a look at win-loss records by state, historical betting odds and margins, and advantages in other ranking systems.

The 'default' home ground advantage has now been re-set to eight points. Matches between teams in the same city still have a home ground advantage of zero. At the other end, I've kept the advantage involving Western Australian teams - which involve much higher travel distances - at 12 points.

I've applied these new advantages to the 2023 results as well, so the ranking points for teams were slightly adjusted from the end of last year even before the 'opening round' matches.

Monday, December 4, 2023

AFLW Rankings: Finals 2023


The Brisbane Lions have won their second AFLW premiership (from their fifth Grand Final), and despite finishing fourth after the home-and-away season, it wasn’t much of a surprise. The top four teams – Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Brisbane – were all rated similarly heading into the finals, and in line with this we saw a few close finishes in games during the finals series. There were some surprises along the way though.

First, Brisbane kicked seven goals in the Grand Final against North Melbourne from only 21 entries inside 50. The Roos’ defence had been stellar during the 2023 season, conceding less than four goals per game, and being the only team to concede less points per game than inside 50s (see Statistics table above). The Lions were seemingly well-beaten in the midfield, with 13 less inside 50s and 18 less clearances. But they found ways to stop the repeated entries into their defence, amassing 109 tackles (over 30 more than the Roos, and the Lions’ season average), and to score from their limited opportunities going forward.

In the end the Lions don’t quite finish the season as the top team on the rankings, but they are certainly one of the best teams in the competition. Like Adelaide and North Melbourne – and Melbourne until recently, more on which below – they were clearly stronger across the board than most of the league. A few unexpected losses to lower teams meant they had to do it a slightly harder way in the finals by beating Adelaide and North Melbourne away, but there would not have been many who thought they didn’t have the credentials to give it a good shake at least.

The main surprises of the finals series though were the significant changes in form of Melbourne and Geelong. Reigning premiers Melbourne had been a scoring machine during the 2023 season but could manage only nine points in their first final against North Melbourne. The Demons then faced Geelong the next week and kicked only one goal and trailed by 30 points at three quarter-time. They finally recaptured their offensive power in the final quarter by piling on five goals, but ultimately lost by five points.

After knocking off the reigning premiers, Geelong continued their impressive form by coming close to beating Brisbane at home. They lost by only four points, although like Brisbane in the Grand Final, they were helped by their scoring efficiency when inside 50. The end result is that Melbourne slipped away from Brisbane, North, and Adelaide in the rankings, and were replaced in the top four by the Cats. While it’s a little strange to see Melbourne end up there after being so dominant during the season, based on their finals form it’s hard to argue.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

AFLW Rankings: Round 10 2023


It’s been fairly clear to most serious AFLW followers from early on this season that there are four top teams, and then the ‘rest’: Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Brisbane. None of these would be a surprise to win the premiership. In a close finals series, the results may to a significant extent come down to home ground advantage.

Rankings finals predictions:

Elimination Finals: Gold Coast defeat Sydney, Geelong defeat Essendon

Qualifying Finals: Adelaide defeat Brisbane, Melbourne defeat North Melbourne

Semi-Finals: Brisbane defeat Gold Coast, North Melbourne defeat Geelong

Preliminary Finals: Adelaide defeat North Melbourne, Melbourne defeat Brisbane

Grand Final: Adelaide defeat Melbourne (barely)

Sunday, October 8, 2023

AFLW Rankings: Round 6 2023


The Crows halt Melbourne

In an AFLW classic, the Adelaide Crows surprised with an away win against reigning premiers and previous league ladder leaders Melbourne on the weekend. While the Crows are themselves one of the top-rated sides, Melbourne had looked a step ahead of even the best teams with their awesome offensive prowess, averaging over two more goals per game than even the Crows heading into the matchup.

Adelaide couldn’t quite stop Melbourne’s forward firepower – the Demons still scored on 40 per cent of their inside 50 entries, which is still pretty good for any team not wearing red and blue. They couldn’t also stop Eden Zanker, who kicked five goals to bring Melbourne back into the match in the final half hour.

What Adelaide did reduce though was Melbourne’s inside 50 entries and particularly their flow of uncontested possessions. The Demons had just 88 uncontested possessions against the Crows, way down on the 153 per game they had been averaging beforehand this season. That brought down Melbourne’s supply of scoring opportunities, with only 28 inside 50s, about ten down on what they had been averaging.

The Crows meanwhile were able to mostly maintain both their uncontested game and forward supply. They racked up 139 uncontested possessions and 38 inside 50 entries – a little down on their averages so far this season, but very respectable against the toughest opposition in the league on their home turf.

Going Noff

A major part of the Crows’ win were the amazing performances of their midfield engine room of Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard. Between them Marinoff and Hatchard had 60 disposals, 19 tackles, and 4 goals, which proved decisive in the win.

Marinoff in particular has become more of a forward threat this season. She has averaged seven inside 50 entries per game this season, after never averaging more than five per game in her previous six seasons.

Indeed, Marinoff would be clearly considered the most damaging midfielder in the game – if it wasn’t for a certain #25 at North Melbourne. Jasmine Garner has averaged over eight inside 50 entries per game, and is the only player to be ahead of Marinoff this season for inside 50s and metres gained (see below). Both are also in the top ten for score involvements. The main difference is that Garner is a clearance/contested possession machine, while Marinoff remains outstanding in terms of her tackles (though both are near the top of either statistic).

Either way, Marinoff and Garner are the main driving forces behind the league’s top two teams on the ladder at the moment. They’ll face off against each other in three weeks time, in a matchup that may be crucial for shaping the top four this season.