AFL Rankings: Round 9 2024

Essendon are ‘defying’ the rankings so far this season, currently sitting third on the AFL ladder – albeit a draw away from seventh – while still being only ranked fourteenth. Why the large discrepancy?

First, Essendon have a very low percentage for a third-placed team. Three of their wins were by a goal or less, and their two losses were by almost 100 points combined.

Second, Essendon had a terrible end to 2023. They lost three matches by 70 points or more, and they beat West Coast and North Melbourne by a combined 10 points. Their average net margin adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength was -45 points over their last seven games (see chart below). That is still one-third of the games included in the Bombers’ current ranking.

Not having much of an effect is the fixture. Essendon do have a couple of easy games coming up, but so far in 2024 they have played a mix of strong, average, and weaker teams.

Are the rankings placing too much weight on the Bombers’ poor end to 2023? Possibly. In 2024, they have a slight position average adjusted net margin, which would place them around the middle of the pack for teams – about where they would sit if the Magpies had scored one more point on Anzac Day. They were around average for a fair chunk of 2023, before falling away at the end. That seems about where they are at, and around where the rankings – with some valuable wins already in the bank – have them eventually finishing this year.

 

AFL Rankings: Round 8 2024

Richmond are last for free kick differential (free kicks for less free kicks against) so far in 2024. They were second-last (per game) in 2023. They were last in 2021 and 2022, second last in 2020, and last in 2017 and 2018. How does it keep happening?

One theory was the game style that the Tigers played under coach Damien Hardwick, or at least the style they played during their golden era from 2017. However, Hardwick left as coach part way through last year. His new team the Gold Coast Suns are third for free kick differential. And under new coach Adem Yze Richmond are not a high-pressure team, ranking last for tackles and low for pressure acts. Perhaps it’s more to do with the players?

Richmond are losing the free kick count in most areas of the ground (see table below), although the two areas where they are most significantly doing so are for Midfielders and Key Defenders. For Midfielders, it’s their wings Kamdyn McIntosh and Marlion Pickett that have the largest negative differentials. For Key Defenders, it’s Dylan Grimes – who has had an even free kick differential for most of his career – and inexperienced talls Ben Miller and Tylar Young. Ruck Toby Nankervis also continues to be a main ‘offender’. But Nank aside (and Grimes, but he’s only a recent ‘offender’), that’s hardly the ‘spine’ of the modern Richmond era. Shai Bolton used to have a heavy negative differential too that contributed to past results, but has improved over the past two years.

So the negative Richmond free kick differential has persisted through changes in coach and players. Maybe the Tigers just keep finding ‘undisciplined’ players? Maybe it’s a game style that has persisted after Hardwick? Or – as much as this blog tries to find evidence that isn’t ‘conspiratorial’ … maybe this trend has reached a point to conclude that Richmond could be umpired a bit differently?

All that said, the free kick differential probably isn’t hurting Richmond a huge amount (other than supporters’ mental health), just as it did not stop them from winning premierships in 2017, 2019 and 2020. A contested possession is estimated by Champion Data to be worth about a point, so on that basis the Tigers’ free kick differential is costing them perhaps about a goal per game in points differential, although possibly a bit more if their defenders are more often getting pinned. That might cost them a win or two in a year where they are lacking them – although the ‘silver lining’ is it might also give them a higher draft pick…