Sunday, August 31, 2008

Diary of an AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Days 6 and 7

Day 6, 11AM: Fremantle had a good win last night, so I thought that Sandilands may have racked up a big score. Alas, he saved his worst game of the season until last, scoring a mediocre 52 points. So much for the theory of bringing in the guy with the higher average. If I get myself into the same position next year, maybe I should put more weight on what players are likely to score rather than what they have scored. Is the Simmonds for Sandilands trade going to prove the move that brings me undone?

5PM: Brent Harvey scored 133 points, which is handy, but on the other hand Daniel Pratt scored 122 points for the opposition. Still no sign of Gary Ablett’s score and now I have to head out. May check the scores again when I get home.

Day 7, 9AM: I’m in deep trouble - I have players underperforming all over the park.

Jarrad Waite scored only 49 (I knew he was going to score badly trying to stop Lance Franklin), another player who saved his worst for last. To make matters worse, Cyril freakin’ Rioli scored over 100 points for the Ninjas. Given that I traded Waite for Rioli a few weeks ago, this means that I spent $200,000 in cash to buy a player who scored half as much when it matters most. And to think that I was so pleased that they would have to resort to Rioli. Someone somewhere is laughing at me.

Robert Murphy added another 111 for the opposition, so it looks like my forward line advantage has quickly evaporated.

McLeod and Johncock – two players that I badly needed to perform – had below par performances.

On the plus side, if I do go down, it won’t be through my captaincy choice. Gary Ablett outscored Lance Franklin 107 to 86, and when you double their scores this gives me an extra 42 points in advantage. (I wonder if Claire, a Hawthorn supporter, chose Franklin over David's better judgment. If so, their two-headedness would have come back to bite them. Heh heh heh.)

Re-calculated the two teams’ expected scores and (oh my god!) I still come out ahead. The midfield is the key: Power, Thompson and Cooney all had below par performances for them, while Harvey and Judd played well for me. But this is going to be a squeaker.

Interesting sideshow: apparently O’Keefe didn’t play, so we’ll have to resort to emergencies. Shouted ‘you little beauty!’, then realised they actually had an emergency forward. Damn! Don’t know much about this Maric guy. Is he playing today? Where are the teams? As long as he scores less than Hansen’s 59, I come out ahead in this department. .

11AM: Paul Chapman scored 40 points – thank God I didn’t pick him up.

2PM: Feel bad that I’m hoping that Troy Simmonds trips over and hurts his leg when he runs on to the field. (Well, Richmond is going to finish ninth anyway - what does it matter? We can win against Melbourne without him.)

Richo getting lots of the ball early – I knew it was a good idea to bring him in.

3PM: Simmonds getting too much of the ball for my liking. However, Deledio also playing well, and I haven’t spotted this Maric yet. Richo is having a dog of a day, not that it matters to the final score, only to the ‘what ifs’.

4PM: Deledio is killing them in the final quarter. I thought that I was cursed when he hit the post from 10 metres out, but he’s kicked three goals and picked up heaps of contested possessions. And I still have Nick Riewoldt to play. Oh yes, I’m starting to feel good about this now…

6PM: Rushed to the internet to find out the final scores, only to find that the last match of the season, St Kilda v Essendon, started at 4.40. But now I’m only 43 points down! Deledio had a ripper, scoring over 140. Simmonds scored only 52 – the exact same score as Sandilands – saving me years of therapy. Richo scored 20, which doesn’t mean too much to me, but must be galling to anyone that made him captain on the advice of the Herald-Sun this week. 43 points down, and it comes down to this: Riewoldt, Dal Santo and Stanton v Leigh Montagna (with Gram cancelling out on both sides). Unless Stanton manages to score minus five, I should have this in the bag.

Half time at the Saints-Bombers match: Riewoldt has three goals, Dal Santo 14 possessions, no mention of Gram, Stanton or Montagna. I think I have this.

7PM: Woo-hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I win – 2037 to 1920! I’m the League Champion!

Riewoldt went supernova, scoring 168 points - I knew I should have had him as captain, but it doesn’t matter now!

Stanton tried his best to screw me up, scoring 32 points, but it doesn’t matter now!

I win! I win! The prizemoney is mine!

My forward line proved to be the winner after all. Really, Deledio and Riewoldt were my two best additions for the whole year. I picked up Deledio at the start of the year when no-one else in my league wanted him and he just kept on performing. I picked up Riewoldt in the middle of the year when he had reached his nadir and he gave me a huge boost over the second half of the season.

One thing to do before I go – I’ve waited five months for this:

Me: Woo-hoo! I'd like to dedicate my victory to Bombers 08, who won the first battle but was totally annihilated in the war. It’s been fun folks!

[Footnote: Bombers 08, the team that trash-talked me after beating me in April, finished second last.]

I win! I win!

I think I should retire now. Or maybe I’ll do a Brisbane Lions and go for three in a row next year. We’ll see.

It's all over! And what have we learnt? If there's a message to be taken from all of this it's that you need only concern yourself with what you can influence - you can control your choices; you can’t control how they turn out. But just keep calm, play the percentages, and you don’t have to look back in regret.

Thanks to my family and friends for hearing me rabbit on about this for twenty-two weeks. Thanks to anyone who managed to read through my obsessive ravings. And last of all, thanks to the players themselves. I’ve grown fond of each and every one of you. Yes, even Brent Stanton.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 5

Alright - Pavlich out, Richo in, Ablett captain... let the dice fall where they may.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Diary of an AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 4

OK, team release night and three decisions to make:

1) Should I trade tonight? But don’t I always trade on a Thursday? Well, yes, but I’m still kind of spooked by the ‘Jimmy Bartel appendicitis’ incident from last year. What happened was that I used my last trade to bring in Bartel on the Thursday night and then the next day it was revealed that he had been taken to hospital, most likely at the exact moment I put him in my team. I still won the Grand Final (regrettably no prize money was involved), but the result was probably somewhat closer than it would have been had I used my trade elsewhere. This year? Well, in most cases it won’t matter – say I trade Pavlich for a gun forward and then a player gets injured. In that case, I would have to use one of my emergencies. But if I wait until tomorrow and a player gets injured, I still have to use one of my emergencies (because Pavlich is out this week) – it’s just a matter then of whether I trade Pavlich or the other injured star. Follow so far? Now the only way it’s going to matter if one of my ruckmen is injured, since I can’t cover them if I use up my final trade. If it’s Cox, no big deal, because the Ginger Ninjas have him too. But if it’s Sandilands - I’m screwed.

(Incidentally, with Pavlich’s departure there will be only nine survivors from my initial starting 22: Martin Mattner, Nathan Bock, Jason Gram, Daniel Bradshaw, Nick Dal Santo, Nick Stevens, Brent Stanton, Dean Cox, and Brett Deledio. And I’d trade at least half those guys if I could.)

2) Who to trade for? I was leaning towards Paul Chapman, but Matthew Richardson is awfully tempting, particularly given that he is playing the Demons. That would also cancel out Richardson on my opponent’s team, leaving a forward line battle of Riewoldt, Deledio and Waite v Murphy, Akermanis and Rioli. Problem is Richo’s recent form hasn’t been great, while Chapman scored 130 points last week. But Chapman has been injured a bit recently. Then again, so has Richo. Hmm…

3) Who to make captain? Gary Ablett has been my go-to guy for most of the year, but he’s only had one stellar game since his return from injury. Nick Riewoldt has been in great form recently, but he doesn’t tend to have games where he goes supernova. Hmm again…

Verdict: I think I will break with tradition and wait until tomorrow afternoon to use my final trade; that will give me time to consider whether to bring in Chapman or Richo and I can see whether or not Sandilands survives the night. But I’m leaning towards Pavlich out, Richo in, Gary Ablett captain.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 3

Matthew Pavlich is out for the season, according to the Herald-Sun injury list. Even though he is on my team, this actually improves my chances. Assuming the Ginger Ninjas do not have a trade left they will have to resort to using their current emergency Cyril Rioli (remember him?), while I can swap Pavlich for Paul Chapman and gain an extra 30 point advantage. The potential fly in the ointment is if I lose another of my players this week, in which case I’ll have to resort to my emergency Lachlan Hansen, and possibly lose my advantage on the forward line. If that happens, I may well rue the indulgence of my trade of Simmonds for Sandilands last week.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Diary of an AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 2

Know thy enemy: the team that my Phantom Lunches is facing off against in the Big One this weekend is the Ginger Ninjas. They are an unusual opponent, although not a unique one, as I’ll get to later. The team is nominally coached by Claire, who sits in the chair diagonally across from me at work. But Claire is not a football obsessive, so she has been helped along the way by David, who sits diagonally over the partition from me. David came to help Claire because the person who set up the league invited too many people, so that David missed out on a spot. Apparently some deal was worked out about splitting the prize money if, God forbid, the Ginger Ninjas won the league. (Can I somehow use this arrangement to sow distrust among their ranks? Hmm, it may possibly be a little late for that…)

The upshot of all of this is that my opponent is not who it appears to be. For example, I probably could get the information out of Claire whether or not her team has a trade left. But David is a more inscrutable opponent: when I quizzed him on the subject (perhaps not the most covert approach), he answered that maybe he had a trade left, maybe he didn’t. (For what it’s worth, I think he’s bluffing – I reckon he used his last trade to try and win last week.) So far the scoreline is 1-1, with them winning the home-and-away season match-up, and me winning the first final.

So why is this not a unique opponent? Well, as it turns out the team that topped our league at the end of the home-and-away season was also a double act – the wife sits at the desk across from me, and the husband manages the team across the phone. That team was my main concern until the Ginger Ninjas helpfully put them out last week. It remains to be seen whether they actually did me a favour or not.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Day 1

I won my preliminary final quite easily (2195-1932), although perhaps not as easily as I should have given that the other team was missing three players. Sandilands got belted around the ground by Troy Simmonds on the weekend, which was great from the point of view that it helped Richmond win, but not so great for my SuperCoach team (and my mental health). Speaking of Richmond, with life, the universe, and everything conspiring towards the Tigers just missing the finals again (I’m not mentioning their position on the ladder), my whole focus for this week is going to be on getting my SuperCoach team over the line. So let’s start with the team-by-team comparisons:

Me:

Ablett 133.71
Cox 111.71
Riewoldt 111.25
Harvey 111.05
Pavlich 110.53
Judd 109.6
Franklin 108
O'Keefe 103.76
Brown 102.15
Dal Santo 101.05
Waite 100.8
Deledio 100.29
Mattner 97.57
Milburn 95.89
Stevens 95.33
Sandilands 95.24
Stanton 93.14
Bradshaw 92.58
Bock 91.95
McLeod 88.16
Johncock 87.42
Gram 86.76
Total 2227.94

Them:

Ablett 133.71
Cox 111.71
Pavlich 110.53
Cooney 109.1
Franklin 108
Power 106.14
O'Keefe 103.76
Thompson 103.52
Brown 102.15
Richardson 101.42
Pratt 97.84
Mattner 97.57
Montagna 96.86
Milburn 95.89
Stevens 95.33
Bradshaw 92.58
Bock 91.95
Murphy 91.8
Gram 86.76
Akermanis 85.24
Birchall 84.71
Simmonds 74.14
Total 2180.71

I’m ahead, but it’s a little too close for comfort. Let’s try that again with the common players taken out:

Me:

Riewoldt 111.25
Harvey 111.05
Judd 109.6
Dal Santo 101.05
Waite 100.8
Deledio 100.29
Sandilands 95.24
Stanton 93.14
McLeod 88.16
Johncock 87.42

Them:

Cooney 109.1
Power 106.14
Thompson 103.52
Richardson 101.42
Pratt 97.84
Montagna 96.86
Murphy 91.8
Akermanis 85.24
Birchall 84.71
Simmonds 74.14

So my main strengths are my forward line (Riewoldt, Deledio and Waite v Richardson, Murphy and Akermanis), and supposedly my ruck division, although last week’s results suggest otherwise. My backline is a little weaker (although it could be argued that McLeod, when in form, is at least on a par with Daniel Pratt), and the midfields are about even.

So who to trade? Graham Johncock has fallen so far in value that he is untradeable. McLeod and Gram are possibilities, although I’ll probably keep McLeod given his recent form. There’s a temptation to trade my weakest midfielder, Mr Brent Stanton, for Adam Cooney, therefore nullifying Cooney’s score. But Stanton has actually been in better form lately, and I don’t know if I could take the mental torture if he scored 150 next week.

In fact, my best hope for this weekend may be to hope that Matthew Pavlich’s injury puts him out for another week. I can trade him out; I’m not sure that my opponent could.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Diary of an AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 21

Monday:

Preliminary final week, and since it all could end this weekend it’s time to put in that extra bit of effort. First up: let’s check whether my team would actually be expected to win this week’s match-up. Looking at the average scores of my line-up relative to those of my opponent’s, the answer is: yes I would, and quite easily too.

Me:

Ablett 136.88
Harvey 112.65
Cox 112.4
Riewoldt 111.95
Pavlich 110.53
Franklin 109.3
Judd 108.05
O'Keefe 104.25
Brown 101.42
Dal Santo 101.37
Waite 100.63
Deledio 100.35
Milburn 98.94
Mattner 96.75
Stevens 95.1
Bradshaw 91.5
Bock 91.35
Stanton 90.9
Johncock 88
McLeod 86.22
Gram 85.75
Simmonds 72.1

Total 2206.39

Them:

Ablett 136.88
Cox 112.4
Pavlich 110.53
Franklin 109.3
Judd 108.05
Black 104.58
Brown 101.42
Hayes 101.11
Milburn 98.94
Mattner 96.75
Murphy 95.85
Murphy 92.05
Bock 91.35
Ladson 89.55
Medhurst 88.4
McLeod 86.22
Johnson 83.15
Griffen 80.11
Lade 75
Ellis 72.7
Selwood 53.86
Tippett 51.35

Total 2039.55

Of course, because we live in a world of randomness, it’s always good to improve your chances where you can, particularly if you have two trades left in the bank. The obvious player to drop is Troy Simmonds - I could trade him for Aaron Sandilands, who is averaging about 25 points a game more. We’ll see what happens when the teams are named, but that’s the way I’m leaning.

Wednesday:

Thought I saw the girl again that I saw the morning I was muttering the words ‘Graham Johncock’ over and over to myself… it’s fortunate that I did not see her yesterday when I was repeating my potential ruck division: ‘Cox, Sandilands, Cox, Sandilands…,’

Thursday:

And now my ruck division is ‘Cox, Sandilands’. I was a bit worried about the fact that Simmonds and Sandilands had scored about the same over the past six weeks, but I’m still justifying the trade on the grounds that Sandilands has had a lower amount of ‘shockers’ this year. Consistency is my friend at this stage of the season.

(I did ponder that I could get rid of Brent Stanton for Adam Cooney, but it’s hard to justify dropping a player who has just scored 119 points. Besides, there’s always next week.

Er, assuming there is a next week…)

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 20

Sunday:

I won, I'm into the preliminary final in two weeks time, so I'm shutting up shop for the week!

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 19

Tuesday:

I, like many other SuperCoaches throughout Australia this week, want to hit Heath Shaw with a crowbar. For those who don’t know, Shaw was caught driving while over the legal alcohol limit last Sunday night. He copped a huge fine, but appeared to escape suspension from the Magpies, since they need all the help they can get to make the finals. All good, at least from a SuperCoach point of view, until it emerges that he lied about the other passenger in his car, who was teammate Alan Didak. Now the pressure to suspend both Shaw and Didak becomes even more intense (although since Didak is not on my team I wouldn’t mind if the Collingwood hierarchy take him out the back of Victoria Park and shoot him).

Damn Shaw and damn him for putting me in this morally compromising position! He broke the law, what he did was dangerous, and he should be dumped from the team. But goddamn it, I need him to play this week, particularly with Darren Milburn being suspended for four matches, and Graham Johncock last spotted somewhere in the oil fields of Alaska. Honestly, I hope they play him. Goddamn…

Wednesday:

Well, now we know… Heath Shaw out for the rest of the season. The good news though is Darren Milburn has had his suspension reduced to one week, although this also makes things decidedly tricky. Do I keep Milburn or go for broke and try and get the week’s rest in the finals? I think keep him, and here’s why: if I’m aiming to win my league then, because of the way the finals system works, I have to win the last two matches of the finals regardless of whether I win or lose this week. That being the case, it would be better to have Milburn for those last two weeks then not to have him. Not only is he one of the better defenders going around, I can use the trade elsewhere.

So how to use the trades? Well, one will have to be used to ditch Heath Shaw. Unfortunately, Shaw’s value has gone down recently so to get a top defender will probably eat up some cash. I’m also thinking if I want to take out some insurance against Milburn’s absence, I can upgrade Cyril Rioli for a star forward. I was going to do this at some point anyway, so why not this week? That will give me an all-star line-up when Milburn returns, and still leave me two trades to cover injuries.

I’m liking this plan, but we’ll have to see what the teams are tomorrow night.

Thursday:

All going to plan – Johncock’s back, Ablett’s back… I traded Heath Shaw for another underperforming star, Andrew McLeod, and dumped Cyril Rioli for the consistent Jarrad Waite. Once Milburn returns, my team should be unstoppable! The other finalists are not going to know what hit them! That is, assuming I win the first final this weekend…

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Graphic Novels That You Would Like If You Weren't Too Chicken To Read Them - 'The Dark Knight Returns'

In 1986, when Frank Miller (of ‘Sin City’ and ‘300’ fame) was given the task of revamping comics’ most famous detective, Batman’s sales were as flat as a tack. The specter of the campy ‘60s TV show still hung overhead, and edgier, more modern heroes such as the X-Men had usurped the Caped Crusader’s place in terms of both relevance and popularity. It was up to Miller to take the Batman back to his chilling roots, and he did so, paradoxically, by taking the character forward in time, making the Batman even older than his readers and the enemies he faced. In the process, Miller created the most influential graphic novel of the past 30 years – one that, along with the similarly lauded ‘Watchmen’ (also appearing in ’86), inspired artists and filmmakers alike to tear away the baggage that surrounded their favourite heroes and rebuild them as they saw fit.



It has been ten years since the Batman retired, and Gotham has become overrun by vicious street gangs. They are, as Batman’s alter-ego Bruce Wayne notes, a ‘purer breed’ of criminal than the man who killed his parents – unrepentant of their crimes, and only looking out for the next big rush. The continual stream of violence eventually forces Batman out of retirement, and he returns a darker, more brutal crimefighter than the one we are used to seeing, sweeping through Gotham’s underworld like a man possessed. We see far more disturbing sides to old enemies Two-Face and the Joker, and discover that the Batman-Superman rivalry is not anywhere near as friendly at it seems. And a new, 13 year-old female Robin pops up, a new soldier in the Batman’s war.

In contrast to ‘Watchmen’ which was meticulously planned down to the last panel, ‘DKR’ reads like a jumble of ideas that Miller is just skillful enough to keep from collapsing into a mess. The pacing of the story is relentless, with Miller making continual use of television screens to move events forward as well as to explore the milieu surrounding Batman. But Miller is careful to intersperse the action with full-page shots of both Batman and Superman, giving these icons the space they need to prevent them being swallowed up by the dystopia that he has created. Readers that are used to having all of the details set out before them may find Miller’s storytelling techniques a bit vague, but there is enough there to satisfy you if you’re willing to follow the clues.



As with the recent ‘Dark Knight’ movie, ‘DKR’ explores both the need for a Batman and the dangers of him. On one hand, it seems that Batman is simply adding to the violence in Gotham City. He has lost almost all compunction when it comes to his war on crime – he blasts his way through enemies with his modified Batmobile (now essentially a Bat-tank), he breaks their arms and legs with the object of striking fear into their fraternity, and in his final showdown with the Joker, he is unhesitant about putting a Bat-a-rang straight through the villain’s eye. A vigilante group – the Sons of Batman – spring up in his wake, using much the same methods and little of the judgment. Other crimes, rightly or wrongly, become attributed to the Batman’s return, the most spectacular being the Joker’s awakening from a catatonic state to go on a mass murder spree. However, Batman manages to encourage heroism as well, inspiring the new Robin to take up the cape and boots and acting as her mentor. And when the Russians begin to rain down bombs, it is Batman, not Superman, who has the preparedness to deal with it, and restore a semblance of order to Gotham.




Those who have only seen ‘The Dark Knight’ movie may think they have seen the best and the worst that Batman and the Joker have to offer. While that movie was a fine effort, in the end, it tones down the madness that is heaped upon Gotham, in the process doing much of Batman’s work for him. ‘DKR’ is a more complex, more intense achievement, and one that fans of ‘The Dark Knight’ movie, if they have the stomach for it, would be well advised to seek out. After reading it, you’re guaranteed never to think of Adam West as Batman again.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 18

Friday:

Why, when I’m away for a while, does it seem like my SuperCoach team is spiralling out of control? In fact, things are not as bad as I feel. Had my lowest score for the season last week, but I still won by heaps and am now assured of a top four position in my league. The reasons for the low score were the absences of Johncock, Milburn and Pavlich, leaving me with 20 scoring players. But even then I only dropped to 106 in the overall championship, so it seems like I’m not the only team having problems. And I still have five trades left.

Ah, the trades… with every week they seem more and more like my key to glory. I am playing the top team in my league this week, so the temptation is to use up two of them, particularly with Gary Ablett still sidelined. But there’s no advantage to finishing first rather than fourth, at least in a league as close as this, so I think the better strategy is to plan for the finals. With that in mind, I traded for cash, swapping David Myers for Eric Mackenzie, giving me 4 trades and over $220,000 in the bank for the finals next week. Then if Ablett and Johncock return next week, I can use that extra cash to dump Cyril Rioli and go into the finals with an all-star line-up (yes, even with Brent Stanton). If one or neither return I still have enough trades to bring in other star replacements. That’s provided there are no more absences.

(Crap! What if there are more absences?)

P.S. If nothing else, will put my opponent, who barracks for the Kangaroos, into some sort of conflict this week by picking Brent Harvey as my captain. With the finals coming up, it’s time to psychologically unsettle my opponents however I can.