Diary Of An AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Week 14

Friday:

Was muttering ‘John-cock’ to myself this morning as I was walking to the station (as in my team’s new addition, Graham Johncock). Not sure how audible it was since I had my headphones in, but the girl on the other side of street looked at me peculiarly. Then had to walk faster and overtake her before I crossed over just in case she thought I was a sex maniac. Should probably not mutter the names of my backline in public again.

Papers are making big deal out of Nick Dal Santo being dropped, which makes me feel better in that I now feel like the victim of some extraordinary event. Freakin’ Ross Lyon is being cagey on when Dal Santo will return though. Hopefully the Saints fans will man the Telstra Dome gates tonight with ‘WE WANT NICK!’ and ‘ROSS LYON SUCKS!’ placards. After all, it's in the public interest.

Sunday:

Half-time and no horrific Brent Stanton injury. In fact, judging from the highlights he seems to be getting plenty of the ball. Admittedly, all those highlights are taken from the centre square. Need him to get a lot of the ball as I’m down over the weekend, and my opponent does not have Stanton in his team. In fact, none of my opponents have Stanton in their teams. This always make me a little uneasy – as if they are all collectively laughing at me behind my back. May have to trade Stanton out. Will consider further.

Monday:

Ended up losing. I’m fine. I’m fine with that. I got done in by a team that happened to have a good week. It happens. Such is the way of chance in this universe. I’m fine.

(Should I have traded out Dal Santo and Bradshaw? No, it was unlikely to have made a difference. But it could’ve. But it probably wouldn’t have. Stay cool, let your opponents burn those trades like there’s no tomorrow…)

Tuesday:

Read an article in The Economist about the endowment effect, which is that the value that a person puts on something depends on whether or not a person actually owns it. (For example, a person who owns a coffee mug is reluctant to trade it for a bar of chocolate even if that person did not prefer coffee mugs to chocolate when given a straight choice between the two.) The article went on to conjecture that the explanation lies in evolutionary biology: once upon a time, it made good sense to clutch on to what you already had.

I wonder: am I a victim of this phenomenon? On one hand, a rational coach may have traded out underperformers like Nick Dal Santo, Jason Gram, Brent Stanton and Tom Hawkins weeks ago, yet I’ve sat still and watched their values drop for weeks on end. On the other hand, the rationale I use for keeping them is that their initial values are probably a good reflection of their overall ability and it is not worth trading them out after a few bad performances. Which is true? The latter view has helped me to maintain trades, but how does one measure the value of the trades that should have been made?

Thursday:

Reports are that Carlton captain Chris Judd may miss the match against Richmond this week. This is a prime example of where the best interests of my SuperCoach team and my AFL team collide. Judd is a key player in my midfield and his injury last week arguably cost me the win. However, his absence would enhance my wish to see us totally obliterate Carlton on the weekend. Your team always comes first, doesn’t it, but I have a far better chance of winning my SuperCoach league than Richmond does of winning the premiership. Yet maybe I can still win without Judd. Sometimes I think life would be easier if I didn’t have the faintest idea about probabilities.

Judd has been named, and Dal Santo and Bradshaw have returned, so I won’t be forced to make a trade this week. Did look at trading for some cash, but there were no interesting rookies on offer. Was content to abide by the maxim that sometimes the best move is to do nothing at all. But then I started to think about my midfield. I planned to upgrade the midfielders later on in the season, but maybe I could do it now by trading out Ryan Griffen for an undervalued superstar. After half an hour of consideration, traded Griffen for Brent Harvey. Harvey is in top 10 players in the league, which makes this trade feel right. But did I get twitchy because of one loss? Will burning this trade come back to haunt me? God, should I have traded out Brent Stanton?

(Does this feel right? Yes… but only just.)