Sunday, August 31, 2008

Diary of an AFL SuperCoach Obsessive - Grand Final Week: Days 6 and 7

Day 6, 11AM: Fremantle had a good win last night, so I thought that Sandilands may have racked up a big score. Alas, he saved his worst game of the season until last, scoring a mediocre 52 points. So much for the theory of bringing in the guy with the higher average. If I get myself into the same position next year, maybe I should put more weight on what players are likely to score rather than what they have scored. Is the Simmonds for Sandilands trade going to prove the move that brings me undone?

5PM: Brent Harvey scored 133 points, which is handy, but on the other hand Daniel Pratt scored 122 points for the opposition. Still no sign of Gary Ablett’s score and now I have to head out. May check the scores again when I get home.

Day 7, 9AM: I’m in deep trouble - I have players underperforming all over the park.

Jarrad Waite scored only 49 (I knew he was going to score badly trying to stop Lance Franklin), another player who saved his worst for last. To make matters worse, Cyril freakin’ Rioli scored over 100 points for the Ninjas. Given that I traded Waite for Rioli a few weeks ago, this means that I spent $200,000 in cash to buy a player who scored half as much when it matters most. And to think that I was so pleased that they would have to resort to Rioli. Someone somewhere is laughing at me.

Robert Murphy added another 111 for the opposition, so it looks like my forward line advantage has quickly evaporated.

McLeod and Johncock – two players that I badly needed to perform – had below par performances.

On the plus side, if I do go down, it won’t be through my captaincy choice. Gary Ablett outscored Lance Franklin 107 to 86, and when you double their scores this gives me an extra 42 points in advantage. (I wonder if Claire, a Hawthorn supporter, chose Franklin over David's better judgment. If so, their two-headedness would have come back to bite them. Heh heh heh.)

Re-calculated the two teams’ expected scores and (oh my god!) I still come out ahead. The midfield is the key: Power, Thompson and Cooney all had below par performances for them, while Harvey and Judd played well for me. But this is going to be a squeaker.

Interesting sideshow: apparently O’Keefe didn’t play, so we’ll have to resort to emergencies. Shouted ‘you little beauty!’, then realised they actually had an emergency forward. Damn! Don’t know much about this Maric guy. Is he playing today? Where are the teams? As long as he scores less than Hansen’s 59, I come out ahead in this department. .

11AM: Paul Chapman scored 40 points – thank God I didn’t pick him up.

2PM: Feel bad that I’m hoping that Troy Simmonds trips over and hurts his leg when he runs on to the field. (Well, Richmond is going to finish ninth anyway - what does it matter? We can win against Melbourne without him.)

Richo getting lots of the ball early – I knew it was a good idea to bring him in.

3PM: Simmonds getting too much of the ball for my liking. However, Deledio also playing well, and I haven’t spotted this Maric yet. Richo is having a dog of a day, not that it matters to the final score, only to the ‘what ifs’.

4PM: Deledio is killing them in the final quarter. I thought that I was cursed when he hit the post from 10 metres out, but he’s kicked three goals and picked up heaps of contested possessions. And I still have Nick Riewoldt to play. Oh yes, I’m starting to feel good about this now…

6PM: Rushed to the internet to find out the final scores, only to find that the last match of the season, St Kilda v Essendon, started at 4.40. But now I’m only 43 points down! Deledio had a ripper, scoring over 140. Simmonds scored only 52 – the exact same score as Sandilands – saving me years of therapy. Richo scored 20, which doesn’t mean too much to me, but must be galling to anyone that made him captain on the advice of the Herald-Sun this week. 43 points down, and it comes down to this: Riewoldt, Dal Santo and Stanton v Leigh Montagna (with Gram cancelling out on both sides). Unless Stanton manages to score minus five, I should have this in the bag.

Half time at the Saints-Bombers match: Riewoldt has three goals, Dal Santo 14 possessions, no mention of Gram, Stanton or Montagna. I think I have this.

7PM: Woo-hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I win – 2037 to 1920! I’m the League Champion!

Riewoldt went supernova, scoring 168 points - I knew I should have had him as captain, but it doesn’t matter now!

Stanton tried his best to screw me up, scoring 32 points, but it doesn’t matter now!

I win! I win! The prizemoney is mine!

My forward line proved to be the winner after all. Really, Deledio and Riewoldt were my two best additions for the whole year. I picked up Deledio at the start of the year when no-one else in my league wanted him and he just kept on performing. I picked up Riewoldt in the middle of the year when he had reached his nadir and he gave me a huge boost over the second half of the season.

One thing to do before I go – I’ve waited five months for this:

Me: Woo-hoo! I'd like to dedicate my victory to Bombers 08, who won the first battle but was totally annihilated in the war. It’s been fun folks!

[Footnote: Bombers 08, the team that trash-talked me after beating me in April, finished second last.]

I win! I win!

I think I should retire now. Or maybe I’ll do a Brisbane Lions and go for three in a row next year. We’ll see.

It's all over! And what have we learnt? If there's a message to be taken from all of this it's that you need only concern yourself with what you can influence - you can control your choices; you can’t control how they turn out. But just keep calm, play the percentages, and you don’t have to look back in regret.

Thanks to my family and friends for hearing me rabbit on about this for twenty-two weeks. Thanks to anyone who managed to read through my obsessive ravings. And last of all, thanks to the players themselves. I’ve grown fond of each and every one of you. Yes, even Brent Stanton.

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