Saturday, December 1, 2012

Who Has The Easiest AFL Draw in 2013?

Once again, I've calculated the difficulty of each AFL team's draw, using the method described in last year's equivalent post. This article is on the money: the weaker clubs from 2012 tend to have the easiest draws in 2013 (and Collingwood gets savaged again).

Melbourne 111.8
Brisbane 111.4
Gold Coast 89.2
Port Adelaide 56.9
Adelaide 55.6
Sydney 42.6
Essendon 26.7
Greater Western Sydney 23.3
Geelong 15.0
Richmond 13.0
West Coast 5.5
St. Kilda 4.6
Carlton 1.7
Hawthorn 1.2
Fremantle -5.2
Western Bulldogs -40.2
Collingwood -43.2
North Melbourne -92.9

As an added bonus, here's the rating of each team's draw broken down by

1) 'teams played twice' (based on the ranking of the teams played twice naturally);
2) the net effect of 'travel' (for example, Adelaide's net effect is zero because they play 10 games at AAMI against interstate clubs, and they make 10 trips interstate); and
3) the effect of not playing your own team. (I initially completely forgot about this effect when I wrote this post, despite making a huge deal of it last year.) 

Obviously, for most teams the net effect of travel is not that far from zero, so the other two effects are the major components.

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