After making
my proclamations last week about which teams were likely to make the top
eight and top four at season’s end, most of those teams lost over the weekend.
The top two clubs, Adelaide and GWS, both had losses that were surprising to
many observers. The other two teams I had marked for the top four, Geelong and
Port Adelaide, also lost. Port marked my statement that, contrary to the
bookmakers’ odds, it was a better bet to make the top four than West Coast by
promptly losing to the Eagles (although it
did have a lot more of the attack), which may prove enough to swing their
respective positions at season’s end. On the other hand the top eight teams may
have become a bit more set with St. Kilda winning against GWS and Melbourne
losing to Hawthorn, which gives the Saints a stronger advantage in grabbing
what may be the last available finals spot.
Another consequence of the
top teams falling – particularly Adelaide’s big loss against North Melbourne –
is that the
top seven clubs at the end of 2016/start of 2017 (including Hawthorn rather
than Port) have now lost ranking points over the course of the season. This is
an indicator that the competition has become a bit more even this year. Indeed,
based on the standard deviation of ranking points, this is shaping up as the
most even season of the post-expansion (Gold Coast and GWS) era. Still I think
the finals spots are pretty much settled – there may just be a few more unexpected
results than usual along the way …
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