AFL Power Rankings: Round 8 2018

The West Coast Eagles, second on the ladder, have been pretty good in 2018. However it’s not clear they are one of the two best teams just yet.

After eight rounds of the 2018 AFL season the West Coast Eagles are second on the ladder, and like ladder leaders Richmond have seven wins and only one loss. Richmond is currently a powerhouse, and the top-rated side on these rankings. The Eagles though are only ranked sixth. What do the rankings see that the ladder doesn’t?

The Eagles have been pretty good so far in 2018. They had strong wins against Port Adelaide and GWS over the past two weeks. Their average net margin over their first eight matches is +25, which is clearly the second best in the competition (see chart below).

But the Eagles have had a relatively friendly fixture to date. Four of their opponents so far – the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Carlton, and Gold Coast – are among the seven lowest-ranked sides. After adjusting for estimated opponent strength and home ground advantage West Coast’s average net margin is +20. This is still pretty good, but brings them ‘back to the pack’ a bit.

Apart from Richmond three of the sides that West Coast is ranked below – Adelaide, Geelong, and Sydney – were all somewhat better than the Eagles in 2017, with the Eagles just sneaking into the final eight. West Coast’s shorter record of good performances puts them a touch below those sides on the rankings.

The other side they are below is Hawthorn, although the two teams are so close in ranking points that they can be considered as basically the same level. The Hawks, like the Eagles, were only average in 2017, but have been much better in 2018. The Hawks though are currently two wins behind West Coast.

Despite the difference in wins their performances in 2018 are rated as being fairly similar, with Hawthorn being considered to have had the tougher fixture to date (see table above). West Coast’s biggest win came against the bottom-ranked Gold Coast Suns at home, whereas Hawthorn had a 67-point win against a decent Melbourne Demons side. Apart from Melbourne the Hawks have also had to play Richmond, Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and North Melbourne – all of whom have been good or decent teams so far in 2018.

West Coast has a tougher fixture from here on in, including playing Hawthorn in Melbourne in two weeks, and hosting Richmond next week. If they can win those then the rankings will definitely consider them as being one of the top sides ‘for real’. Until then though, it still remembers a little about the team that were ‘smashed in the press’ last season.