AFL Power Rankings: Round 20 2018

The AFL this year actually has a clear set of ‘bottom six’ teams. However, some of those teams are still much worse than the others.

With eighteen teams in the AFL, it’s somewhat natural for the league to think of the ladder as consisting of ‘three groups of six’.

This is what the AFL does in terms of determining its fixture each year. Teams in the ‘top six’ – based on last season’s finishing positions – will in theory have harder fixtures than those in the ‘middle six’ or ‘bottom six’ (though this doesn’t always work).

Potentially more significantly and controversially, under the AFL’s proposed ‘17-5’ fixture teams would be divided into ‘three groups of six’ after playing each other once in the first 17 rounds. The ‘top six’ teams would play for the top four spots in the final five rounds, the ‘middle six’ teams would play off for finals spots, and the ‘bottom six’ teams would play to determine who gets the highest draft picks.

Usually teams don’t fit neatly into groups of six in terms of ability. For example, last season Collingwood finished in the ‘bottom six’ in thirteenth position, and received a relatively easy fixture as a result. However, based on the Power Rankings Collingwood was an ‘average’ side that was about as good as the sixth-placed side, the West Coast Eagles. The Magpies and Eagles are among a bunch of ‘average’ sides that have taken the step up to being ‘good’ this season, but if you only consider ladder position the Pies’ rise seems more dramatic.

The ‘Dismal’ Six

This year though there has been a clear ‘bottom six’ sides – Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs, St. Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Carlton. These six teams are all at least three wins behind every other team in 2018, with three rounds left. They are also clearly the six bottom-ranked sides, and have been since way back in Round 4.

The Lions have been OK recently

Nevertheless that does not mean these six teams are all about as equally ‘bad’. In particular the Brisbane Lions have been pretty good over the past few weeks (see first chart below). Indeed, despite currently sitting in sixteenth on the AFL ladder, the Rankings think the Lions are closer in ability to second-placed West Coast than seventeenth-placed Gold Coast! (See second chart below.)

The Lions are zero wins and five losses in matches decided by less than ten points so far this season. With at least a couple of wins in those close matches their ladder position would probably be a ‘fairer’ indication of their ability. On the bright side, with higher draft picks currently going to lower teams, they may end up with a higher draft pick than a team of their ability would usually get.

Gold Coast and Carlton are in depths of their own

Three of the remaining ‘bottom six’ sides – Fremantle, the Western Bulldogs, and St. Kilda – have been pretty ‘bad’, but not historically so. They have generally hovered around being three or four goals per game below average (see first chart above). They’re closer to Gold Coast than West Coast, but not by a huge amount.

Freo and the Bulldogs both have a couple of ‘stars’ holding them up – Nat Fyfe (until his injury) and Lachie Neale at the Dockers, and Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae at the Doggies. The Saints have Jack Steven, and also a ‘rising star’ in young forward Jade Gresham. It’s not a great near-term outlook for any of them, but it’s not awful either.

Gold Coast and Carlton though are way below everyone else, as shown by them both losing by around 100 points on the weekend. They have generally been around six to seven goals per game worse than an average side (see first chart). Between them they have had 11 losses this year in excess of ten goals.

Carlton though at least has a genuine ‘star’ in Patrick Cripps, and a ‘rising star’ in Charlie Curnow. Gold Coast is going to lose one ‘star’ and co-captain this season in Tom Lynch (though they should receive good compensation), may lose the other in Steven May, and really do not appear to have much else in the way of ‘stars’ or ‘future stars’ in the near-term. Though the Suns are currently separated only by percentage from fellow Queensland side the Brisbane Lions, the gap between them may really be much, much larger.