AFL Power Rankings: Round 11 2019

Fremantle is the most improved team this season, having once again become a hard team to score against.

Based on each team’s change in ranking points so far in 2019, the Fremantle Dockers are the most improved team this season (see table below). Their ranking points have improved by about four goals, and they have gone from being considered one of the worst teams to around average. Excluding Carlton and Gold Coast – both of whom had hardly anywhere to go but up – no other team has improved by more than seven rankings points this season, not even Brisbane (the big improvers on the ladder).

Fremantle has been better than average this season though. Their current ranking is dragged down by having an average net margin, adjusted for estimated home ground advantage and opponent strength, of -28 points over the second half of 2018 (see chart below). In the first half of 2019, it is +8 points.

The Dockers’ rise in ranking however has largely been driven by their performances in three of those 11 matches. They are: their opening round smashing of North Melbourne, and their impressive wins away against top teams GWS and Collingwood. Outside of those three matches the Dockers have been slightly below average (which is still a large improvement on last season’s performances)

After generally leaking goals since their 2015 Grand Final appearance Fremantle has once again become a hard team to score against, having conceded the second-least points this season. The Dockers are conceding on average 70 points a game, way down from 93 points a game in 2018.

This is despite none of their defenders being particularly highly rated or ranking particularly highly in any category, apart from Luke Ryan and his ability to intercept. Collectively though, while players such as Alex Pearce barely impact the stats sheet, Fremantle has conceded the least marks inside 50 and the least goal assists.

I still wouldn’t be racing to put money on the Dockers to finish highly (if I raced to put money on anything at all). They are looking a lot closer to it though than I would have thought at the start of the season.