AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 3 2022

The Joy of Six

… And it took only one more week for the AFLW fixture to be thrown into more semi-chaos by COVID, meaning that the scheduled Brisbane v Gold Coast cross-state match I highlighted last week did not eventuate…

Instead, the Lions played host to Carlton on a Tuesday night and won easily by about six goals. This catapulted them up off the bottom of the ladder and into the top six, and possibly set this year’s finalists for good – i.e. they’re looking like the same six teams that made the finals last year. With the caveat that the Western Bulldogs have still only played one match so far, the top six are already looking a clear step ahead of the rest on most of the major statistics (see table below).

Fremantle and Melbourne in particular are both looking very strong in several areas. Both have average differentials with their opponents so far of around 30 points, eight scoring shots, ten contested possessions, and over nine inside 50s per game. Adelaide – while on top of the ladder – has generally not been quite as strong in these areas, and holds top spot largely through keeping scoring low. They have however played tougher opponents.

Collingwood – not yet defeated but not yet convincing?

You could argue perhaps Collingwood are a step further back again, as they have only broken about even in the inside 50 battle. Their defence has been more of a reason for their healthy percentage, ranking second behind the Crows for opposition points per inside 50.

However, they still have the highest uncontested possession differential to date, suggesting that they have still had the majority of ball control in their matches, even if not control of the territory. We should get a better read on where the Magpies are at when they (hopefully) host the Dockers tomorrow night.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 2 2022

And it took only two rounds for the AFLW fixture to be thrown into semi-chaos by COVID … with one match (Brisbane v Bulldogs) being postponed, and other matches moved.

That aside, we probably didn’t learn a whole lot more from the results this weekend – or at least we mainly learned that the hierarchy of teams from last season looks like being similar to the hierarchy of teams this season. Melbourne accounted for last week’s big winners Richmond as predicted, although aside from the second quarter the Tigers did actually stick fairly well with the Demons. Last year’s top teams Fremantle, Adelaide, and Collingwood all won as well by reasonably comfortable margins.

Row, Row, Row

Perhaps the biggest development came at the other end of the ‘rankings’, with Gold Coast beating West Coast, and indicating they may be a little stronger than the Eagles, or at least closed the gap. It was the Suns’ first win in 672 days, so their ceiling does still looks to be ‘not last’.

Credit where it’s due however with Gold Coast recording 11 scoring shots and 30 inside 50s, well above their averages of six scoring shots and 22 inside 50s last season. The number one draft pick Charlie Rowbottom played like an established star with 17 disposals (3^rd most in match) and 12 tackles (equal first for the weekend).

It sets up a slightly intriguing (scheduled) clash against cross-state rivals Brisbane, with the reigning premiers coming off a postponed match and still sitting at the bottom of the ladder – the Suns will celebrate even more if they could make them stay there.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Round 1 2022

The first round of the 2022 AFLW season passed with little surprise regarding who won – perfect tipping so far, woo-hoo! – although there were a couple of unexpected things within those results.

Lowly ranked Geelong came with eight points of 2021 finalist the Kangaroos, while last year’s premier Brisbane could manage only four scoring shots and currently sit on the bottom of the ladder, albeit against last year’s runner-up the Adelaide Crows. The rankings still have the Lions on top (just), however long-term injuries to defender Kate Lutkins (last year’s best afield in the Grand Final) and forward Dakota Davidson may hurt their fortunes somewhat.

Tigers burning bright?

One of the biggest improvers in terms of the rankings, and probably in the minds of many watchers, was Richmond who opened the season with a 38-point win against St. Kilda.

A note of caution though is that the Tigers were very accurate in front of goal, kicking 10 goals and just one behind, which they may find it hard to sustain. They had only five more inside 50s compared with the Saints, and committed more turnovers, although Monique Conti helped them to easily win the clearance battle.

Last season though the Tigers’ opponents were highly accurate in that they had the most points per scoring shot, so perhaps this is things evening out a bit and showing that the Tigers are around somewhere in the middle.

Getting time and space

Once again this round’s results showed the high value in the AFLW of being able to win uncontested possessions. All the round’s winners went over 100 uncontested possessions, while all the round’s losers bar Brisbane went under that mark. In contrast the spread of contested possessions among winners and losers was more even.

Really, a team’s ideal in Australian football would be to keep possession of the ball and advance it towards goal without running into pressure. My observation would that be in the men’s competition teams use a higher number of uncontested possessions to do this, more often maintaining long chains in which they move the ball laterally or backwards, and racking up more possessions per turnover. While this is done with the ultimate purpose of finding a way out of stoppages or a gap in the opposition defence, this could make the value of any single uncontested possession lower in the men’s game, and which is why winning the contested ball count is more often important.

In the women’s competition at its current juncture though, small differences in winning contested ball may matter less, and it may be more about having the skill and the game plan to be able to maintain possession once you have it.

One could certainly see this, for example, in how Melbourne was able to dominate possession against the Bulldogs on Saturday night, with players like Libby Birch, Tyla Hanks and Lily Mithen able to gather – and in Birch’s case intercept – a lot of possessions with no nearby opponent. Indeed the Demons looked about as impressive as advertised, and while they don’t quite yet sit atop these rankings, I have little argument against the betting market currently having them as (slight) premiership favourites.

AFL WOMEN’S Rankings: Preview 2022

Welcome back to The Wooden Finger’s AFL Rankings for 2022, with the AFL Women’s season scheduled to kick off this Friday.

Not just rankings but more stats

This year I’m adding another table to the usual weekly set. This will be a summary of important statistics for each team for the season, so that you can see at a glance how teams are performing in particular areas. Included in this table for each team will be – both for and against – average points, scoring shots, inside 50s, contested and uncontested possessions, and approximate ‘net possession chains’ defined as intercepts plus clearances less turnovers. These are the statistics I find myself most referring to in seeing where a match was ‘won and lost’, and I hope others find them useful too.

Below is an example, which summarises how each team went during the last AFLW season.

At a quick glance, one can see that there were seven teams that were fairly similar in terms of scoring power last season: Brisbane, Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, Fremantle, the Kangaroos, and Carlton. These seven teams all averaged 12 to 13 scoring shorts and around 40 or more points per game. However, Melbourne, the Kangaroos, and Carlton were a bit more ‘leaky’ on defence, conceding one or two goals more on average per game than the other four sides – although in the Demons’ case that was due more to high opposition accuracy on goal than conceding more scoring shots.

The Bulldogs, GWS, Richmond and St. Kilda formed the top part of the lower part of the league, conceding slightly or somewhat more points than they scored, and having a negative differential with their opponents on most important stats. Finally West Coast, Geelong, and Gold Coast were well off the pace, giving up on average four to six goal margins to their opponents.

Analysing the fixture for 2022 (though it is probably futile…)

For what it’s worth, let’s have a look at how teams fared in terms of the difficulty of their fixtures for 2022. I say ‘for what it’s worth’ because as we know the fixtures of both the men’s and women’s AFL competitions have changed from week to week over the past two pandemic-affected seasons, and we have already had a reshuffle of the Round 1 fixtures just a week before games are scheduled to start. Nevertheless, we can at least see what the AFL is trying to do in determining this year’s fixture.

In a competition with 14 teams but only ten rounds, each team will miss out on playing a few of the others. The AFL has taken a similar approach to what they did in the later rounds of last season, which is to have the lower-ranked teams face off more against each other than the higher-ranked teams and vice versa.

The expected lower sides mentioned above – Richmond, Geelong, Gold Coast, St. Kilda, and West Coast – will all play each other. The main problem for these teams in terms of the ease of their fixtures is that they do not get to play themselves.

Similarly, most of the top sides get to only play two or three of the lower-ranked sides. One exception is Collingwood, who only misses out on playing Richmond. Somewhat amazingly though, the reigning premiers Brisbane get to play all of them! At this stage then, the Lions look to be one of the big ‘winners’ from this year’s AFLW fixture. Runners-up Adelaide, and Carlton – who actually ended up missing the finals last year – look to be the biggest ‘losers’, playing only two of the lower-ranked teams.

Well, time to get ready for the first bounce (hopefully) on Friday. First round tips below: