Are Adelaide and Melbourne the top two?
In the next round of AFLW (assuming
no COVID-related postponements) the six finalists from 2021 – and the likely
six finalists for 2022 – will play off against each other. This follows this
week’s matchups where four of those teams faced off, with Adelaide recording an
impressive away win against Fremantle, and Melbourne controlling their match
against the Kangaroos.
Those wins now put the Crows and Demons one win clear at the top of the ladder. Does that make them currently the two strongest sides? For the two-time champion Crows, I’d be prepared to say they likely are, while noting that the top five AFLW teams are only a win apart. For Melbourne, despite their important wins over the past couple of weeks, I am less sure…
After eight rounds of the 2022 season, Adelaide has the highest points differential and ranks at or near the top in differentials for scoring shots, inside 50s, contested possessions, and possession chains (see table above). Their main rival in these categories though is not Melbourne, but their conquerors from last year’s Grand Final – the Brisbane Lions. The Lions were certainly helped in their ranking by kicking an AFLW record score (98 points to 24) against the Eagles on the weekend. That aside however they have regularly bested their opponents in most categories, and it has been Brisbane’s inaccuracy in front of goal which has led to some narrower wins, and their loss to Melbourne last week.
Melbourne meanwhile have been helped
by their strong efficiency in converting inside 50 entries into points, with
1.5 points per inside 50 compared to 1.1 for the Crows and the Lions. They were
well beaten for inside 50s by Adelaide, and also by Brisbane last week although
they still managed to stage a memorable comeback and win. Maybe that high
forward line efficiency holds up, but it may also be less sustainable to
winning than the weight of inside 50 dominance that Adelaide and Brisbane have
shown, or as
I said last week they cannot rely on Tayla Harris taking seven contested marks
each week. Still if they can finish in the top two on the actual ladder
they will be in a good spot.
The main challenger to Adelaide
and Brisbane may actually be Fremantle, or at least a Fremantle team at full
strength. With reigning AFLW best and fairest Kiara Bowers missing for three straight
matches the Dockers have dropped games against the Kangaroos and now Adelaide. Before
that though they were similar to Adelaide in terms of their differentials in
these main categories.
The Kangaroos? – Probably closer
to the Demons and Dockers than the Crows and Lions, although they do have a
much stronger inside 50 differential than Melbourne offset by the poorest scoring
shot efficiency inside 50 of the top six. If they end up finishing in fifth –
and they do face Brisbane away next week – they may face a tough road through
the finals.
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